On Darfur, Alex de Waal takes on the chatter among some Darfuris about self-determination. He discusses the various arguments in support of self-determination in the context of current Sudanese politics. And this week in the medical journal The Lancet researchers concluded that about 300,000 people died over the past six years in Darfur, but that disease, rather than violence, killed at least 80 percent of them. This is probably the most reliable mortality study to date. I am sure people like Mahmood Mamdani will make as much hay as they can with this study to argue that the conflict in Darfur has been exaggerated by activists. He and others will no doubt in the process conveniently ignore the fact that roughly 3 million Darfuris fled the violence and still remain in displaced camps.

On the United Arab Emirates, The New York Times ran a more analytical than normal piece on the now crumbling image of the Emirates as an Arab model of modernity: “Then the crash came and revealed how paper-thin that image was, political and financial analyst. That realization, not just in Dubai but also in Abu Dhabi, the oil-rich capital of the United Arab Emirates, has cast a harsh light on an opaque, top-down decision-making process, not just in business but in matters of crime and punishment as well, political and financial analysts said.”

And here are some quick recommendations of other interesting pieces:

• Marc Lynch on the controversial politics of Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the most influential satellite mufti: “Hate him or love him, the man has a keen sense of Arab opinion — whether he’s following or leading it — and has a proven track record of driving the debate.”

• US Policy in Gaza Remains Unchanged: My friend Amjad Atallah at the New America Foundation in the article argues that the United States is seen as completely complicit in the humanitarian crisis: “The idea that the U.S. is impotent… is something that no Palestinian in Gaza who we met believed.”

• Human Rights Watch’s Seven Principles for Effective International Engagement in Yemen: “To be effective, international counterterrorism policy in Yemen should take into account the lessons from the response to al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan: military tactics such as airstrikes that cause high civilian casualties, and arbitrary arrests and abusive treatment of suspected militants undermine efforts to reduce local support for al Qaeda. The Yemeni government has engaged in all of these actions against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).”

• UN Dispatch – American Engagement Caucus Formed: Russ Carnahan, a Democrat and Anh “Joseph” Cao, a Republican, launched the “American Engagement Caucus” at an event on Capitol Hill last week. The caucus is dedicated to  enhancing international cooperation and engagement.

“I don’t know when is the last time that humanity created something that is going to live on for years to come.” - Nakheel advertisement

It was almost a full year ago that I heard these words in the state-of-the-art visitor’s center of Nakheel, the real-estate subsidiary of Dubai World. The unfinished development projects of Nakheel in Dubai – like The Palm and The Globe – now have investors around the world fearing another massive jolt to the international financial system. From what I have read, even if Dubai World were to fold completely, the actual effect on global markets would pale in comparison to the collapse of Lehman Brothers – which ushered the world dramatically into our ongoing Great Recession. See this chart to compare the relative sizes of the companies.

Nevertheless, I think that the expansive coverage of Dubai World’s woes is appropriate. It serves as another important chapter in the rise and fall of the over-hyped myths of the commanding heights of global finance. In addition to writing down in my notes the highly entertaining quote  above, the only other thing that I wrote during the video was: “This is a bet on on global capitalism!!!” Indeed, the development project of Dubai was quite simple: complete integration with the ever-churning engines of international commerce, finance, and tourism – greased, of course, with the oil and natural gas revenues of neighboring Abu Dhabi. What could possibly go wrong?

As Jan Randolph, head of the sovereign risk group at IHS Global Insight, noted, Dubai’s rags to riches, and possibly back to rags, tale “has all the elements of a Greek tragedy.” And these pictures taken this past year visualize for us this roller-coaster story. Luckily for Dubai though, global capitalism will most likely bounce back in the next few years which will once again attract investors, tourists, and globe-setters back to its prodigious condos, malls, and man-made islands. On its rebound, perhaps Dubai will act with a bit more humility and forgo boasts, such as ”We are now building and shaping the vision of a modern world.”

With this said, I hope that Dubai and the Emirates as a whole do not completely abandon their dreams. Located in a region where violence, repression, and destruction dominate the daily realities of so many, the success stories coming out of the Gulf states - if you could put aside the legitimate concerns over labor and human rights for a second – were unique over the last few decades. In many ways the ambitious state-building and relatively liberal environments did inspire many people in the region. In addition to the often mistreated laborers (who also are bearing the brunt of the collapse), middle class Arab professionals – lawyers, accountants, journalists, and engineers – have flocked to the U.A.E., Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar and built quite successful careers and enjoyable lives there.  As propagandistic as it might sound, there is a shred of truth in the quote of an employee in the video: ”Nakheel is a company that allows you to dream and it empowers us to make those dreams a reality…We are building a country.”

Similarly, I do believe that Dubai’s successes have been overall positive for the region.  Flush with cash, investors from the Emirates and other Gulf states have gambled on projects like the Djibouti Port and large-scale agricultural projects in Ethiopia.  At a meeting with Dubai Ports World in January, their managers spoke proudly of investment in infrastructure in Africa and future projects helping Iraq recover.  Concerns about investments in brutal regimes like Sudan’s or the possible exploitation of natural resources and laborers in the Horn of Africa are legitimate - but they should not overshadow the fact that massive amounts of capital are needed/will be needed to support development and growth in the region.  For these reasons, governments, businessmen, and farmers, and even some humanitarian aid recipients from South Sudan to Gaza are certainly not cheering on the downfall of Dubai.

SAIS group entering Nakheel

Many individuals that I met in Dubai and Abu Dhabi spoke about their emirates in the same self-aggrandizing tones of the Nakheel promotional video. They repeated the claims that the unbelievable growth and development was inspired by Sheikh Maktoum and Sheikh Zayed’s “visions for a better way of life” for their people “with humanity at its heart.” For instance, I am reminded of the last meeting of my trip with Reem Ebrahim al-Hashemi, one of the youngest and most talented ministers of the cabinet. Equally ebullient about the future of U.A.E., she stated: “We are trying to do something different and special here…We are not perfect, but we are dedicated to the people of the region.” While such comments could have been inserted into the Nakheel video, she argued that the dynamism of the country – represented by the people and ideas that it has attracted – will help it overcome its current challenges. In particular, she argued that adaptability is the key to sustainability and that mechanisms for change have been built into the system.

The more we learn about Dubai’s problems, the more we doubt these claims. Nevertheless, the next few years will finally put to the test – as never before in its short history – all that has been realized and envisioned by these leaders for Dubai, the U.A.E., and the greater Middle East and Horn of Africa.