Brains Like a Shoe

The great team at the Progressive Policy Institute published my assessment of the Sudan elections.  In the policy memo, I call upon President Obama to follow through on his inaugural promise to autocrats around the world:

In his inaugural address, President Obama declared, “To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history; but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.” Unfortunately, in the case of Sudan, the hand remains extended, even as the fist remains clenched and poised to strike….It is not too late for President Obama to hold firm to his inaugural promise and declare his administration’s disapproval of politics as usual in Sudan. When the election results are announced this week, he can lead the international community in interpreting their significance. Rather than offering unearned praise, he should state that the administration still regards Bashir as an indicted war criminal on the wrong side of history. If the U.S. fails to stand up for its principles, advocates for democracy around the world will be disheartened, the Bashir government will continue to act with impunity, and the Sudanese people will lose faith in America, even as they face an uncertain and potentially dangerous future. (Read the rest of “Khartoum Dispatch: Assessing the Sudan Elections”)

Good timing for the report to be issued, as the administration’s response has been taking shape over the last 24 hours. My colleague, Robert Lawrence, provides a summary in our election roundup at Save Darfur. In short, the administration denounced the elections as neither free, nor fail – without assigning real blame to any actors in Sudan. The elections apparently were stolen by themselves.

In a short post today, I also reflect on what this means for politics going forward in Sudan over at Change.org:

The elections in Sudan over the last week have given rise to the broadest and most public debate about the governance of the country since before the 1989 coup that brought Omar Al-Bashir and his regime to power. Opposition parties, civil society organizations, and a nascent youth movement have participated loudly in the process — despite ever-present threats of intimidation and repression. These important elements of Sudanese society seized on the first openings of political space, even if many used the opportunity to boycott and denounce the electoral process…

A return, therefore, to purely autocratic politics may not be entirely possible. The chances, however, are more likely in the event that the Obama administration and others in the international community whitewash these elections and explicitly or implicitly confer legitimacy on the Bashir regime.

In response to this line of reasoning, James Traub at Foreign Policy writes on the Obama administration’s handling of the elections, and the advocacy community’s reaction to the administration’s overall policy of engagement. He asks some very relevant questions, such as: will engagement prove more effective this time than it did in the past?

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First posted at Save Darfur’s blog…

My colleagues Jerry Fowler and Mark Lotwis left Sudan last Friday heading back to Washington.  In order to set up a few more meetings in the South, I stayed on in Juba. Little did we know President Omar al-Bashir and his entourage of advisors and security agents would be coming to town—and staying in the same modest hotel as the Save Darfur delegation, in the very wing where Jerry had been sleeping.

Over the weekend, I had heard that Bashir would be traveling to Juba and a few other towns in the South to campaign.  In my mind, I imagined a quick dash by motorcade from the airport to a rally in Juba and then a few darts by plane to some other choice locations in the Greater Equatoria states.

So I was quite surprised when early Monday afternoon, I was confronted by a newly erected roadblock in front of my hotel.  Initially, the mix of police and security officials told me that I could not pass. When I explained that I was staying at the hotel beyond their checkpoint, they quickly scanned my backpack and then gave me strict instructions on how to walk to the next crowd of security personnel suddenly stationed in front of hotel gate.  After another round of negotiations that involved coaxing hotel staff out to verify my claims, I was finally permitted to enter the foyer—where I was promptly urged by a security guard to take my room key and, like a misbehaving child, go straight to my room.

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Sudanese women registering to vote

First posted at Save Darfur…

A new report by the Carter Center on Sudan’s elections expresses grave concerns about recent security crackdowns. The report should serve as an urgent wake-up call for the international community that the necessary conditions for free and fair elections currently do not exist in Sudan. Instead, the lack of political freedoms and the gross registration violations, especially in Darfur, shed clear light on the ruling National Congress Party’s intentions for these elections: a fraudulent process designed to legitimize its undemocratic, repressive and genocidal rule.

Jerry Fowler, Save Darfur’s president, stated in a press release today:

The Carter Center’s report came as no surprise. Sudanese civil society and opposition leaders for the last two weeks have been speaking out loudly about the gross human rights and elections violations of a repressive regime. By and large, the international community has remained quiet while these activists and opposition leaders have been threatened, harassed, and beaten throughout Sudan. The situation, as the Carter Center report acknowledges, is even more severe in Darfur. The heavy military and intelligence presence at the registration sites and the lack of even the basic freedoms make it impossible for the people of Darfur to participate in a credible elections process.

Given the alarming nature of the Carter Center’s report, Save Darfur has urged the U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan, General Scott Gration, to work with his international counterparts and demand answers from the Sudanese government on the following issues:

Lack of Basic Freedoms. Several recent incidents – such as the crackdown on protesters in Khartoum and the beating and detentions of journalists – have clearly demonstrated the lack of political rights and freedoms in Sudan necessary for free and fair elections.

The Carter Center reported:

• [T]he Center…expressed serious concerns about incidents that undermine political rights and fundamental freedoms in Sudan, including: arrests, detention and harassment of civil society and political party members for constitutional and peaceful activity in Khartoum and other cities by security services, and attacks on the National Congress Party (NCP) premises in Wau and Rumbek.

  Read the rest of this entry

*First posted at Save Darfur’s blog.

Five news items in the last week and today highlight the precarious security condition for Sudanese living in Darfur and South Sudan.

In the first, Frank Nyakairu at Reuters explores whether the resurgent Lord’s Resistance Army is now receiving financial or military support from elements in Khartoum.  Last week, the UN Deputy Special Representative and Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Sudan, Ms. Ameerah Haq, expressed grave concern about the increasing number of deaths due to the escalating attacks by rebels of the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) against civilians – mostly women and children – in Southern Sudan’s Western and Central Equatoria States.

Suspicions abound that an old relationship has now been reborn.  A Ugandan intelligence official, for instance, notes: “They are estimated to be about 2,500 (strong) and operating in two languages, Acholi and Arabic.”  The use of Arabic points to possible renewed cooperation between the LRA and Sudanese intelligence (however, since the LRA recruits Sudanese – usually by abduction – this could also be a less troubling explanation).   With all this in mind, there is still no smoking gun and therefore an International Crisis Group expert concludes:

“We have heard the LRA appears to be better armed than it has been in the recent past…but we have no evidence to substantiate those allegations that Sudan is supporting the LRA.”

Another article this week explores the root causes for recent tribal violence in South Sudan. This year has been the bloodiest since the end of the civil war.  More than 1,200 people have been killed “in a wave of violence that has targeted villagers as often as cattle herders and women and children as often as men.”  Skye Wheeler at Reuters investigates the causes for the violent clashes, pointing out that many southerners see scary resemblances to the inter-ethnic violence of the early 1990s that was often encouraged and instigated by Khartoum.   He writes:

Senior officials from the south’s dominant Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) have openly accused northern politicians of once again arming tribes and militias to destabilise the south ahead of the referendum. Khartoum denies the accusations.

Again, these claims still remain only suspicious rumors as there is yet no hard evidence to connect Khartoum to the recent wave of violence. The situation certainly though cries out for greater vigilance and further investigation.

Similarly, the drivers of continuing conflict and even the existence of continuing conflict in Darfur have been hotly debated over the last month.   As I wrote in an early posting, with or without active war, Darfur remains a dangerous and unpredictable place.   And recent figures from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) confirm this .  In 2009 alone:

Seven national humanitarian staff and three UNAMID staff have been killed.

12 humanitarian staff and 10 UNAMID staff have been wounded or injured.

11 humanitarians (seven international) have been kidnapped.

26 humanitarians and three UNAMID staff have been physically or sexually assaulted and 10 UNAMID staff have been wounded or injured.

11 humanitarians (seven international) have been kidnapped.

26 humanitarians and three UNAMID staff have been physically or sexually assaulted.

18 humanitarians and 11 UNAMID staff have been abducted during carjackings.

44 humanitarians and 12 UNAMID staff have been arrested or temporarily detained by the Government of Sudan.

64 humanitarian vehicles and 31 UNAMID vehicles have been hijacked or stolen.

There have been 103 assaults or break-ins on humanitarian agency premises, and 22 on UNAMID premises.

Given these statistics, it comes as no surprise that UNAMID announced this morning that it will increase patrols. And finally this morning we are receiving fresh reports about a Darfuri rebel splinter group attacking three Sudanese policemen which then resulted in Sudanese police and army activity around and inside three IDP camps.

As we continue to state, a peace process in Darfur and the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement are the only routes to long-term peace and security for conflict-weary Sudanese.  At the same time though, these stories and reports reveal that all of these negotiations are taking place in an environment of troubling violence and looming threats.   Since feelings of insecurity usually preclude comprise, the international community must ensure that investigating attacks and providing protection to civilians remains a constant priority.