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	<title>Brains Like a Shoe &#187; protest</title>
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	<description>A blog about the politics and conflicts of the Horn of Africa and the Middle East, and the role of the United States in facilitating peacemaking, state-building and economic development in the region.</description>
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		<title>Aftermath of the Crackdown in Sudan</title>
		<link>http://www.seanbrooks.net/2009/12/aftermath-of-the-crackdown-in-sudan/</link>
		<comments>http://www.seanbrooks.net/2009/12/aftermath-of-the-crackdown-in-sudan/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Dec 2009 03:12:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sean Brooks</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Sudan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[elections]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Human Rights]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[protest]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.seanbrooks.net/?p=363</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Also posted at Save Darfur&#8230;
Yesterday, at the end of the first full day after the crackdown in Khartoum, the State Department finally released its statement condemning the violence used against protesters in Sudan. Calling for restraint and dialogue among all parties, the U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan, Scott Gration, stated:
“I am deeply concerned about these developments and urge all parties [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://blogfordarfur.org/archives/2528">Also posted at Save Darfur&#8230;</a></p>
<p>Yesterday, at the end of the first full day after the crackdown in Khartoum, <a href="http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2009/dec/133322.htm">the State Department finally released its statement condemning the violence</a> used against <a href="http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/africa/More-than-200-Protesters-Reported-Arrested-in-Sudan-78778677.html">protesters in Sudan</a>. Calling for restraint and dialogue among all parties, the U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan, Scott Gration, stated:</p>
<blockquote><p>“I am deeply concerned about these developments and urge all parties to exercise restraint. Negotiations on issues of urgent importance to all of the Sudanese people cannot proceed in an atmosphere of intimidation.”</p></blockquote>
<div class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 346px"><a href="http://sudantribune.com/IMG/jpg/IMG_3019.jpg"><img class=" " title="SPLM leader Yassir Arman arguing with police on Monday" src="http://sudantribune.com/IMG/jpg/IMG_3019.jpg" alt="SPLM leader Yassir Arman arguing with police" width="336" height="252" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">SPLM leader Yassir Arman arguing with police</p></div>
<p>Today, at the end of the second day, we have the following to report.  First, the Juba alliance announced that it would not hold another demonstration tomorrow, but would postpone the effort until next Monday, December 14.  Sudanese newspapers this morning also reported that Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir would meet today with Sudan&#8217;s First Vice President and leader of the Sudan&#8217;s People Liberation Movement (SPLM) Salva Kiir to discuss Monday&#8217;s events and to seek solutions on overcoming the roadblocks in the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).</p>
<p>As for the political climate in Khartoum and much of the rest of the country, it remains tense.  <em>Al-Sahafa </em>reports that the Sudan Scholars Authority (Muslim scholars) issued a fatwa (a religious decision) prohibiting Muslims from joining demonstrations organized by the &#8220;enemies of Islam&#8221; and that the government is entitled to prevent sedition and chaos in the country. The opposition mocked this fatwa and considered it as clearly a propaganda item of the National Congress Party (<a href="http://www.alsahafa.sd/News_view.aspx?id=81825">in Arabic</a>). <a href="http://en.afrik.com/article16614.html">Afrik.com also has a story claiming </a>that five Ugandan businessmen were killed during the violent clashes between the police and protesters in the Southern Sudanese town of Rumbek. And despite a number of claims by observers and participants, police in Khartoum again denied that they used teargas on Monday against the protestors. Meanwhile, the Sudanese Journalist Network called for an investigation of detentions of and alleged abuses against five reports – including the confiscation of their tape recorders &#8211; during the demonstration.</p>
<p><span id="more-363"></span>In addition to this fallout from Monday, we also received this news from the <a href="http://acjps.org/">African Centre for Justice and Peace Studies </a>(ACJPS) about the arrest of three lawyers in Sudan on Tuesday:</p>
<blockquote><p>On Tuesday 8 December, at the Al Kalakla court complex in Khartoum, three lawyers were arrested. Initially the three were arrested for posting fliers on behalf of the Sudan Lawyers&#8217; Democratic Front calling on lawyers to obtain certification and pay membership fees in order to vote in elections to be held in January 2010 by the Sudan Bar Association. A judge named Bashir Rahama ordered the arrest. The women were arrested by the police and interrogated, but released the same day without being charged. Immediately upon their release, an NISS car stopped them outside the police station and re-arrested them, taking them to the NISS office in the Abuadam area in Al Kalakla district. The women remain in custody.</p>
<p>The African Centre for Justice and Peace Studies urges the Sudanese authorities to allow the women access to their lawyers and families, and to expeditiously either charge them with an internationally recognised criminal offence or release them. More broadly, the government of Sudan should not interfere with peaceful political organizing and allow for freedom of expression and association. If these freedoms are not respected, the holding of free and fair elections &#8211; whether at the level of the Sudan Bar Association or the national level &#8211; will not be possible.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Background</span></p>
<p>Elections for the Sudan Bar Association are scheduled to be held in January 2010. The previous elections of the Sudan Bar Association were held in January 2006 and pitted the National Congress Party, represented by Fathi Khalil, against the Democratic Alliance, a coalition including the Sudan Lawyers&#8217; Democratic Front and headed by Amin Mekki Medani. The National Congress Party won amid allegations of rigging. The results of the election were appealed in the courts by the Democratic Alliance alleging corruption and fraud. This submission was accepted by the Constitutional Court, but to date no decision in the case has been rendered.</p></blockquote>
<p>With so much brewing and so many clear examples of individual&#8217;s rights regularly being violated in Sudan by the security apparatus of the Bashir regime, it is critical that the<a href="http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2009/dec/133322.htm"> Obama administration mean what it said yesterday</a> in the official statement when it called on the Government of Sudan to allow &#8220;freedom of assembly, freedom of speech, and protection from against arbitrary arrest and detention.&#8221; These are not only fundamental to credible elections in 2010 but the democratic transformation originally promised for Sudan in the CPA.</p>
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		<title>Bad Day in Sudan, Portends Worse</title>
		<link>http://www.seanbrooks.net/2009/12/bad-day-in-sudan-portends-worse/</link>
		<comments>http://www.seanbrooks.net/2009/12/bad-day-in-sudan-portends-worse/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Dec 2009 00:42:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sean Brooks</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Sudan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[elections]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Human Rights]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Omar al-Bashir]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[protest]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.seanbrooks.net/?p=335</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[First posted at Save Darfur&#8230;
Omar al-Bashir and his National Congress Party (NCP) failed another test today of their commitment to holding free and fair elections in Sudan scheduled for April 2010.  Responding to a march (see video here of crowds chanting “Freedom, Peace and Security”) planned by the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and northern [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_337" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/dec/07/sudan-splm-arrests-elections"><img class="size-medium wp-image-337" title="Protests in Sudan Today" src="http://www.seanbrooks.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/sudan-protester-001-300x180.jpg" alt="Protests in Sudan Today" width="300" height="180" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Protests in Sudan Today</p></div>
<p><a href="http://blogfordarfur.org/archives/2483">First posted at Save Darfur&#8230;</a></p>
<p>Omar al-Bashir and his National Congress Party (NCP) failed another test today of their commitment to holding free and fair elections in Sudan scheduled for April 2010.  Responding to a march (<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsRJjFpbZyQ&amp;feature=player_embedded">see video here of crowds chanting “Freedom, Peace and Security”</a>) planned by the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and northern opposition parties, the Sudanese security forces violently quashed the demonstration and arrested a number of Sudanese politicians and activists.  We have been compiling information throughout the day.</p>
<p>The following is a run down and <a href="http://sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33380">here is also a collection of pictures.</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.amnesty.org/en/for-media/press-releases/sudan-must-end-violent-crackdown-protestors-20091207">Amnesty International confirms that over 200 people,</a> including opposition leaders and human rights activists, were arrested at the demonstration. It demanded that Sudanese authorities announce the names and whereabouts of those arrested and either charge them with recognized criminal offenses or release them immediately:</p>
<blockquote><p>“This is yet another example of the culture of violence that the Sudanese government has adopted,” said Tawanda Hondora, deputy director of the Africa program at Amnesty International. “The government must respect the right of protesters to peacefully assemble and express their views. This is a crucial time for Sudan and all parties should abstain from using violence, especially in the light of the coming elections and referendum.”</p></blockquote>
<p>Two of the leading members of the SPLM, Pagan Amum and Yasir Arman, were among those arrested. Our sources tell us that Arman was beaten severely by a group of police officers before being taken to the hospital.  Both men are now free. <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&amp;click_id=87&amp;art_id=nw20091207165409425C976173">The children and grandchildren of Sudanese opposition leaders Sadiq al-Mahdi</a> (Umma Party) and Hassan al-Turabi (Popular Congress Party) were also detained during the day. Here is an <a href="http://newsudanvision.com/index.php?option=com_content&amp;view=article&amp;id=1958:breaking-news-splm-sg-pagan-amum-speaks-to-new-sudan-vision-in-prison&amp;catid=1:sudan-news-stories&amp;Itemid=6">interview of Amum</a> from prison:</p>
<blockquote><p>All of us have been arrested in violation of our constitutional right of peaceful demonstration and marches. Our intention was to present a petition to the members of parliament to enact within these two weeks the Referendum Law on the right of self determination for the people of southern Sudan…Sudan is on the edge of an abyss and we must do everything to preventing it from falling into this abyss of disintegration and chaos…[We are protesting] so that these laws are enacted in conformity with the constitution so that there are freedoms which will ensure that the upcoming elections will be free and fair.</p></blockquote>
<p>Al-Jazeera reported early this morning that the Sudanese security blocked them from covering the protests and confiscated their tapes.  <a href="http://aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/21ADB832-C800-4D33-9476-14EAC415260C.htm">Fortunately, they captured this footage before being shut down.</a> Our colleague has quickly translated and transcribed two interviews in the footage.  The woman in a white toab(Sudanese national dress), a member of the Umma party, about a third of the way through the video says:</p>
<blockquote><p>The arrest of the SPLM leaders and members of the Sudanese parliament has proved that there is no freedom in Sudan. This demonstration is peaceful, the people are peaceful. If the government is facing it with this number of military and police forces and with harassment and violence, that means this country doesn’t have freedom, no respect for law and order, no freedom of expression.  This consequently demonstrates the reality that the government is using the force to maintain its seat (in power) and is not allowing any democratic transformation in this country to take place.</p></blockquote>
<p>After this interview, the man in suit, a member of PCP, asserts:</p>
<blockquote><p>It’s impossible for the election to take place in an environment dominated by oppression and dictatorship. It’s crucial to change the laws one of which was referenced by the police today to justify their reaction to the protest…because the government’s justification for their reaction is Article 127 of the Sudanese criminal laws that allows the authorities to stop any kind of demonstration or protest even if its peaceful, as well as prohibiting any gathering for delivering statements of protests to the government…The demonstration is calling for the reform and amendment of many laws that were supposed to be amended based on the Sudanese Interim National Constitution.</p></blockquote>
<div>
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<dt><a href="http://sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33380"><img style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px; border: 0px none initial;" src="http://blogfordarfur.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/IMG_30371-300x225.jpg" alt="Protestors Detained Today" width="300" height="225" /></a></dt>
<dd style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 17px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 4px; padding-bottom: 5px; padding-left: 4px; margin: 0px;">Protestors Detained Today</dd>
</dl>
</div>
<p><span id="more-335"></span>The African Centre for Justice and Peace Studies issued an alert later today about two students detained yesterday around 7:00pm for distributing fliers for <a href="http://girifna.com/">Girifna, a campaign for free elections in Sudan:</a></p>
<blockquote><p>The security forces chased the two students, firing shots into the air in order to force them to stop. When the students stopped they were arrested. Their instruments, a flute and a bass guitar, were smashed.</p>
<p>One of the students, Mr. Khalifa, was beaten with the butt of a rifle by security agents and was knocked unconscious at the scene. They were then taken to NISS offices near the railway station in Khartoum where they remain in custody without access to lawyers or family. The African Centre for Justice and Peace Studies fears that they have been subjected to torture.</p>
<p>Available information indicates that these students were targeted for no other reason than that they were attempting to peacefully express their political opinion. The African Centre for Justice and Peace Studies calls on the government of Sudan to respect the provisions of Article 39(1) of the Sudan Interim National Constitution, which provides that every “citizen shall have an unrestricted right to the freedom of expression, reception and dissemination of information”. The government should immediately release these students unless they can be charged with an internationally recognised criminal offence. At a minimum, the students should be given access to their lawyers and families.</p></blockquote>
<p>ACJPS also provided these additional details on the crackdown:</p>
<blockquote><p>Despite the announcement that the intent of the demonstrations was peaceful, authorities released a statement shortly after midnight declaring the demonstration illegal. Heavily armed riot police with batons and tear gas lined the streets of Khartoum in the early morning hours, blocking the roads to Parliament and the main headquarters of several political parties, including the Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Movement (SPLM). Though the government had announced a public holiday for schools and public employees in an effort to deter the public’s participation, thousands had gathered by morning.</p>
<p>Rubber bullets and tear gas were fired into crowds, and security agents confiscated cameras from international media. In Khartoum, over 250 people were arrested, including prominent lawyers, students, journalists, and parliamentarians. Pagan Amum, the SPLM’s Secretary General, Abbas Jumma, the SPLM Minister of the Interior, and Yasir Arman, the SPLM’s Deputy Secretary General and leader of its Parliamentary block, were all arrested. Mr. Arman was seriously injured in police custody, where 13 security agents took him from his cell to a bathroom and beat him. In total, 42 people so far have been taken to the hospital including Samia Rabih, Hussam Mohamed Alamin, and Muna Eltigani, who was seriously injured and taken to a hospital.</p>
<p>Arrests also took place at similar demonstrations held across Sudan. In Wad Medani and El-Obeid, capital of Northern Kordofan State, 42 individuals were arrested, as were 58 in El Hasahisa. Protests also took place in Port Sudan, Gedaref, Kassala, and El Fasher, as well as in every major city in South Sudan and IDP camps in Darfur. A list of the arrested protestors is available upon request.</p></blockquote>
<p>In sum, it was a very bad day in Sudan – with ominous signs that things could get a lot worse. And with all of this happening, radio silence from the Obama administration.</p>
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		<title>More on the politics of Egyptian football</title>
		<link>http://www.seanbrooks.net/2009/11/more-on-the-politics-of-egyptian-football/</link>
		<comments>http://www.seanbrooks.net/2009/11/more-on-the-politics-of-egyptian-football/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Nov 2009 02:53:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sean Brooks</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[egypt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Algeria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[football]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[political reform]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[protest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[soccer]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.seanbrooks.net/?p=172</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Project on Middle East Democracy has more coverage about the politics of Egyptian soccer in which they also nicely summarized my post from yesterday.  They write:
Soccer is more than just a sport for Egyptians. A recent victory in a do-or-die match against Algeria has captivated the entire nation, as well as Western observers. The LA Times [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/mnadi/308079018/"><img class="alignright" title="Egyptian fans" src="http://l.yimg.com/g/images/spaceball.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></a><img class="alignright" title="Egyptian fans" src="http://l.yimg.com/g/images/spaceball.gif" alt="" width="1" height="1" /><a href="http://pomed.org/blog/2009/11/more-than-just-a-sport.html/?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed:+POMED_blog+(Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog)&amp;utm_content=Google+Reader">The Project on Middle East Democracy has more coverage</a> about the politics of Egyptian soccer in which they also nicely summarized <a href="http://www.seanbrooks.net/2009/11/egypt-football-and-protest-but-revolution/">my post</a> from yesterday.  They write:</p>
<blockquote><p>Soccer is more than just a sport for Egyptians. A recent victory in a <a style="text-decoration: none; color: #285680; font-weight: bold;" onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/13/egypt-and-algeria-brace-for-match-of-hate-sequel/');" href="http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/13/egypt-and-algeria-brace-for-match-of-hate-sequel/">do-or-die match</a> against Algeria has captivated the entire nation, as well as Western observers. The <em>LA Times </em>blog Babylon and Beyond describes how Egypt “wishes for <a style="text-decoration: none; color: #285680; font-weight: bold;" onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2009/11/egypt-wishes-for-soccer-glory-as-compensation-to-tough-living.html');" href="http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2009/11/egypt-wishes-for-soccer-glory-as-compensation-to-tough-living.html">soccer glory</a> as compensation to tough living.” The blog quotes sociologist <strong>Sayed Eweis</strong>, who explains soccer “is something that makes [Egyptians] happy.” Writing in <em>The Guardian</em>, <strong>Mohamed El Dahshan </strong>elaborates that soccer “acts as a catharsis fo<a style="text-decoration: none; color: #285680; font-weight: bold;" onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview('/outgoing/www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/nov/16/egypt-algeria-football-qualifier');" href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/nov/16/egypt-algeria-football-qualifier">r political frustration</a> and a proxy for popular participation” in Egypt.</p></blockquote>
<p>I also forgot to mention yesterday that Egypt&#8217;s win on Saturday forced a &#8220;sudden death&#8221; World Cup qualifying match that will be held tomorrow in, of all places, Khartoum.  <a href="http://goal.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/17/a-battle-for-north-african-and-world-cup-glory/">A blogger at <em>The New York Times </em>highlights the irony: </a></p>
<blockquote><p>In Sudan, there is a love-hate relationship with Egypt, and there will be a huge number of Algerian supporters on hand Wednesday for the World Cup playoff game between the Pharaohs and the Desert Foxes. You have to wonder why <a style="color: #004276; text-decoration: underline;" href="http://goal.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/16/fifa-employs-age-old-method-to-ensure-playoff-fairness/">Egypt chose this country to host the game</a>, with a place in South Africa on the line.</p></blockquote>
<p>The Sudanese papers this morning covered the extensive security arrangements being made and reported on the scores of planes being chartered from both Algiers and Cairo. <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/international/worldcup/6588591/Egyptian-and-Algerian-fans-land-in-Khartoum-for-sudden-death-World-Cup-play-off.html"><em>The Telegraph</em> reports: </a></p>
<blockquote><p>“We expect 48 aircraft from Algeria and 18 from Egypt,” said Khartoum state governor Abdelrahman al-Khidr, noting about 2,000 Egyptians were also expected to take buses, while thousands already lived and worked in Khartoum.</p></blockquote>
<p>It&#8217;s also not just Egyptians who have acted out violently due to the passions of the game.  <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7276591c-d3e3-11de-8caf-00144feabdc0.html"><em>The Financial Times</em> carries a story of Algerians attacking Egyptian businessmen and enterprises in Algeria. </a> It notes that Egypt is the largest investor in Algeria outside the oil and gas sector.</p>
<p>For tomorrow though, lets put politics aside for 90 minutes, hope for a great game (meaning an Egyptian victory), and of course a day free of violence.  Yalla Masr!</p>
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		<title>Egypt, football, and protest&#8230;but revolution?</title>
		<link>http://www.seanbrooks.net/2009/11/egypt-football-and-protest-but-revolution/</link>
		<comments>http://www.seanbrooks.net/2009/11/egypt-football-and-protest-but-revolution/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Nov 2009 04:57:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sean Brooks</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[egypt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blogging]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[football]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[political reform]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[protest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[revolution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[soccer]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[
Egypt defeated Algeria this weekend in a World Cup qualifying match that was preceded and followed by violence. Days before the game, three Algerian players were slightly injured in Cairo when Egyptian youth attacked their bus. Then, following the stunning last-minute victory by Egypt (watch the video above), near riots broke out in the streets resulting in [...]]]></description>
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<p><a href="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/columnists/gabriele_marcotti/article6917793.ece">Egypt defeated Algeria this weekend in a World Cup qualifying match</a> that was preceded and followed by violence. Days before the game, <a href="http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/294479,algerian-football-players-slightly-injured-in-cairo-attack.html">three Algerian players were slightly injured in Cairo </a>when Egyptian youth attacked their bus. Then, following the stunning last-minute victory by Egypt (watch the video above), <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?click_id=19&amp;art_id=iol1258302249253H630&amp;set_id=">near riots broke out in the streets resulting in 32 injuries.</a></p>
<p>Having lived in Cairo and watched intense national rivalry games on small television sets at dusty coffee shops in dark alleys surrounded by over-caffeinated and over-zealous young men, I can picture perfectly the scene <a href="http://blogs.mcclatchydc.com/cairo/2009/11/soccer.html">Hannah Allam describes:</a></p>
<blockquote><p>Fireworks are exploding, police sirens are blaring, horns are honking, music is thumping and at least six processions of young men with drums have passed noisily in front of my building. Sporadic gunfire is keeping the whole block&#8217;s residents in from their balconies.</p>
<p>Tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of Egyptians are flooding the streets draped in the red, white and black of the national flag and generally whooping it up. They have reason to celebrate: the Egyptian national soccer team beat archrival Algeria tonight in a World Cup qualifier. The two teams will play again Wednesday in Sudan.</p>
<p>&#8220;This is what a revolution could look like,&#8221; an Egyptian friend observed, wistfully, of the fervor in the streets.</p></blockquote>
<p>With a completely calcified political scene, football serves as one of the only outlets for national pride and competitive domestic politics in Egypt. Elections for the position of president of the two main Cairo clubs - <a href="http://www.ahlyegypt.com/">Al-Ahly </a>and <a href="http://www.en.zamalek-toolbar.com/">Zamalek</a> &#8211; are more hotly contested than any government position in the country.</p>
<p>Imagine what the pent up frustration of millions of young Egyptians could do if focused on a political target? Perhaps Gamal Mubarak?  Could this happen if Hosni suddenly passes away or, if before that, he unconstitutionally attempts to hand over power to his son?  Given the police state that is modern-day Egypt, this revolution en masse may never take place. But no one knows for sure until the fortitude of the carefully calibrated system of repression is truly tested.</p>
<p><span id="more-207"></span>And this finally brings me to what else happened on Saturday. <a href="http://bikyamasr.com/?p=5777">Kareem el-Shae’r, an Egyptian blogger and political activist, was found beaten, injured and covered with his own blood.</a> A member of the opposition Al-Ghad party of Ayman Nour (who also has spent much of the last few years in prison), Kareem had been arrested and harassed previously during the protests calling for judicial independence in 2006.</p>
<p>His case unfortunately is not unique and it will certainly not be the last. For so many years, the Egyptian security service has systematically intimidated, harassed, and tortured those in Egypt who have publicly challenged the system. It is this quiet form of repression &#8211; that looks much different, for example, than the wholesale political cleansing of Saddam&#8217;s Iraq &#8211; that keeps Mubarak safely in power, but continues to stir a boiling pot. When change does finally come to this petrified and decaying state, few know whether the political status quo can be maintained or whether, like after a staggering football victory or defeat, thousands of young men will flow out into the streets firing their guns and setting off explosions.</p>
<p>With no dramatic political reforms on the foreseeable horizon, such could be a frightening future for Egypt.</p>
<div id="_mcePaste" style="position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow-x: hidden; overflow-y: hidden;">His case unfortunately is not unique and it will certainly not be the last. For so many years, the Egyptian security service has systematically intimidated, harassed, and tortured those in Egypt who have publicly challenged the system. It is this quiet form of repression &#8211; that looks much different, for example, than the wholesale political cleansing of Saddam&#8217;s Iraq &#8211; that keeps Mubarak safely in power, but continues to stir a boiling pot.  When change does finally come to the petrified state, few know whether the political status quo can be maintained or whether, like after astaggering football victory or defeat, young men will flow out into the streets firing their guns and setting off explosions.  If reforms are not truly taken soon, such could be the fate of Egypt.sdAs I write this, after midnight, Cairo sounds as if it&#8217;s under siege.</div>
<div id="_mcePaste" style="position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow-x: hidden; overflow-y: hidden;">Fireworks are exploding, police sirens are blaring, horns are honking, music is thumping and at least six processions of young men with drums have passed noisily in front of my building. Sporadic gunfire is keeping the whole block&#8217;s residents in from their balconies.</div>
<div id="_mcePaste" style="position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow-x: hidden; overflow-y: hidden;">Tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of Egyptians are flooding the streets draped in the red, white and black of the national flag and generally whooping it up. They have reason to celebrate: the Egyptian national soccer team beat archrival Algeria tonight in a World Cup qualifier. The two teams will play again Wednesday in Sudan.</div>
<div id="_mcePaste" style="position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow-x: hidden; overflow-y: hidden;">&#8220;This is what a revolution could look like,&#8221; an Egyptian friend observed, wistfully, of the fervor in the streets.</div>
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