Brains Like a Shoe

Just posted this piece at Foreign Policy’s new Middle East Channel.

Peace in Darfur: still a long way off

It is too early to tell – but the “framework agreement” recently signed between the Government of Sudan and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), the most effective armed rebel movement in Darfur, offers some hope for peace in Darfur. The commitment to an immediate ceasefire and reaching a final accord by March 15 advances the dialogue further than at any point since May 2006 – when President Omar al-Bashir’s government signed the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) with what was then considered the strongest of the movements. The problems with that agreement are the same as those threatening the current talks: the fragmentation of the movements and questions about the sincerity of the Sudanese government.

Read the rest here.

First posted at Save Darfur’s blog…

My colleagues Jerry Fowler and Mark Lotwis left Sudan last Friday heading back to Washington.  In order to set up a few more meetings in the South, I stayed on in Juba. Little did we know President Omar al-Bashir and his entourage of advisors and security agents would be coming to town—and staying in the same modest hotel as the Save Darfur delegation, in the very wing where Jerry had been sleeping.

Over the weekend, I had heard that Bashir would be traveling to Juba and a few other towns in the South to campaign.  In my mind, I imagined a quick dash by motorcade from the airport to a rally in Juba and then a few darts by plane to some other choice locations in the Greater Equatoria states.

So I was quite surprised when early Monday afternoon, I was confronted by a newly erected roadblock in front of my hotel.  Initially, the mix of police and security officials told me that I could not pass. When I explained that I was staying at the hotel beyond their checkpoint, they quickly scanned my backpack and then gave me strict instructions on how to walk to the next crowd of security personnel suddenly stationed in front of hotel gate.  After another round of negotiations that involved coaxing hotel staff out to verify my claims, I was finally permitted to enter the foyer—where I was promptly urged by a security guard to take my room key and, like a misbehaving child, go straight to my room.

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Check out a piece that I just posted at Huffington Post…

“Bashir’s Pre-Election Victory Lap at the Scene of the Crime”

Can you imagine Slobodan Milosevic running for president in Srebrenica? The world would have been justifiably outraged. Yesterday, however, indicted war criminal Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir visited El-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur. While not an official campaign appearance, the trip comes three days after Bashir received the formal presidential nomination of his party in the upcoming elections in April. It is long past due for the world – and particularly the United States – to express its grave concern about the sham electoral process that in a few months could effectively legitimize Bashir’s repressive government. Read the rest here.

First posted at Save Darfur…

The New York Times on Saturday ran “Fragile Calm Holds in Darfur After Years of Death,” an article that discusses in detail the profound changes in daily life in Darfur since the early days of the genocide that began in 2003. This depiction of a Darfur that perilously hangs between war and peace may be front page news for the Times, but certainly not for those in the advocacy movement calling for a peaceful resolution to the seven-year old conflict, as well as immediate protection and justice for all Darfuris.

Jeffrey Gettleman writes:

The rebel groups that started the war in Darfur in 2003, catalyzing a conflict that has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, almost seem to have gone into hibernation. So, too, have the infamous janjaweed, the marauding bandits who raped, killed and terrorized countless civilians.

And this planting season, for the first time since 2003,United Nations officials say that tens of thousands of farmers who had been seeking refuge in squalid displaced persons camps returned to their villages to plant crops, a journey many Darfurians would have considered suicide until recently.

Gettleman quotes Lieutenant General Patrick Nyamvumba, the Rwanda commander of the African Union/United Nations peacekeeping mission in Darfur (UNAMID): “Frozen. That is a good word for the situation. It is calm, very calm at the moment, but it remains unpredictable.” While this does appear to be the case, as I wrote in August 2009, with or without active warfare though, Darfur remains a human rights crisis of the first order.

The article also fails to probe deeply into the ongoing obstructions by primarily the Sudanese government – but also the rebel movements – of the peacekeeping force. Nyamvumba states casually, “Yes, we have obstructions from time to time. But it’s not as bad as I thought it would be.” However, as my colleague C.R. pointed out last month, such a claim from the new commander belies the U.N. Secretary General’s findings in his most recent report to the U.N. Security Council and the conclusions of the most recent U.N. Panel of Experts Report. It also contradicts recent statements from Rwandan officials following the death of their members in the force.

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Sudanese women registering to vote

First posted at Save Darfur…

A new report by the Carter Center on Sudan’s elections expresses grave concerns about recent security crackdowns. The report should serve as an urgent wake-up call for the international community that the necessary conditions for free and fair elections currently do not exist in Sudan. Instead, the lack of political freedoms and the gross registration violations, especially in Darfur, shed clear light on the ruling National Congress Party’s intentions for these elections: a fraudulent process designed to legitimize its undemocratic, repressive and genocidal rule.

Jerry Fowler, Save Darfur’s president, stated in a press release today:

The Carter Center’s report came as no surprise. Sudanese civil society and opposition leaders for the last two weeks have been speaking out loudly about the gross human rights and elections violations of a repressive regime. By and large, the international community has remained quiet while these activists and opposition leaders have been threatened, harassed, and beaten throughout Sudan. The situation, as the Carter Center report acknowledges, is even more severe in Darfur. The heavy military and intelligence presence at the registration sites and the lack of even the basic freedoms make it impossible for the people of Darfur to participate in a credible elections process.

Given the alarming nature of the Carter Center’s report, Save Darfur has urged the U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan, General Scott Gration, to work with his international counterparts and demand answers from the Sudanese government on the following issues:

Lack of Basic Freedoms. Several recent incidents – such as the crackdown on protesters in Khartoum and the beating and detentions of journalists – have clearly demonstrated the lack of political rights and freedoms in Sudan necessary for free and fair elections.

The Carter Center reported:

• [T]he Center…expressed serious concerns about incidents that undermine political rights and fundamental freedoms in Sudan, including: arrests, detention and harassment of civil society and political party members for constitutional and peaceful activity in Khartoum and other cities by security services, and attacks on the National Congress Party (NCP) premises in Wau and Rumbek.

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Protesters yesterday in Khartoum, courtesy of Girifna

First posted at Save Darfur…

It was déjà vu yesterday in Khartoum, when on the second Monday in a row the police and security agencies loyal to Omar al-Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP) forcibly shut down a peaceful demonstration organized by the Juba group (those political parties that signed the Juba Declaration in September) . The student group Girifna has a gallery of photos from the scuttled demonstration. This time NCP officials tried vigorously to split the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) from the network of political parties calling for reforms to the national security laws, peace in Darfur, and free and fair elections in April 2010.

On Sunday, the SPLM and NCP announced a breakthrough in their negotiations over the 2011 referendum, the status of the Abyei area, and the popular consultations promised to the people of the Blue Nile and South Kordofan. So on Monday NCP officials said that the SPLM had also agreed to suspend the protests warning that any move to the contrary would nullify the recent breakthrough. SPLM leaders though denied these reports, with Yasir Arman, the deputy secretary general of the SPLM, stating: “any attempts to drive a wedge between the SPLM and the Juba forces will not succeed.”

Instead, some SPLM officials participated in the demonstration and afterwards they and other participants strongly condemned the use of tear gas to disperse the gathered crowds. In addition, Pagan Amum, the secretary general of the SPLM, accused (in Arabic) the NCP of paying people to suppress the demonstration.

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Also posted at Save Darfur…

Yesterday, at the end of the first full day after the crackdown in Khartoum, the State Department finally released its statement condemning the violence used against protesters in Sudan. Calling for restraint and dialogue among all parties, the U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan, Scott Gration, stated:

“I am deeply concerned about these developments and urge all parties to exercise restraint. Negotiations on issues of urgent importance to all of the Sudanese people cannot proceed in an atmosphere of intimidation.”

SPLM leader Yassir Arman arguing with police

Today, at the end of the second day, we have the following to report.  First, the Juba alliance announced that it would not hold another demonstration tomorrow, but would postpone the effort until next Monday, December 14.  Sudanese newspapers this morning also reported that Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir would meet today with Sudan’s First Vice President and leader of the Sudan’s People Liberation Movement (SPLM) Salva Kiir to discuss Monday’s events and to seek solutions on overcoming the roadblocks in the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).

As for the political climate in Khartoum and much of the rest of the country, it remains tense.  Al-Sahafa reports that the Sudan Scholars Authority (Muslim scholars) issued a fatwa (a religious decision) prohibiting Muslims from joining demonstrations organized by the “enemies of Islam” and that the government is entitled to prevent sedition and chaos in the country. The opposition mocked this fatwa and considered it as clearly a propaganda item of the National Congress Party (in Arabic). Afrik.com also has a story claiming that five Ugandan businessmen were killed during the violent clashes between the police and protesters in the Southern Sudanese town of Rumbek. And despite a number of claims by observers and participants, police in Khartoum again denied that they used teargas on Monday against the protestors. Meanwhile, the Sudanese Journalist Network called for an investigation of detentions of and alleged abuses against five reports – including the confiscation of their tape recorders – during the demonstration.

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First posted at Save Darfur…Six hours later, the State Department finally released a statement condemning the violence against protesters yesterday in Sudan.

A full 36 hours after the beginning of the crackdown in Khartoum, we still have not heard the Obama administration address the troubling situation in Sudan. This morning the BBC reports that Sudan People’s Liberation Movement’s (SPLM) Secretary General Pagan Amum (one of those arrested yesterday) has stated that peace in Sudan is in serious crisis.

Headlines this morning in the Sudanese papers demonstrate the urgency. The “Juba group” of political parties has demanded the resignation of the Ministers of Justice and the Interior, as well as the police chief of Khartoum, for their actions yesterday (in Arabic). Meanwhile, Omar al-Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP) alleges that the opposition yesterday attempted to undermine the elections, overthrow the government, and take control of the government (in Arabic). NCP members particularly called out Hassan al-Turabi, the intellectual who helped Bashir come to power in 1989, for being behind the plot.

The Sudan Tribune also carries a number of stories on yesterday’s events. Reading about the subsequent protests in the South, which turned ugly quickly, one realizes that it’s not hyperbole when Sudanese and others speak of being on the edge of the abyss. Things could get much worse if the right flame is lit.

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Protests in Sudan Today

First posted at Save Darfur…

Omar al-Bashir and his National Congress Party (NCP) failed another test today of their commitment to holding free and fair elections in Sudan scheduled for April 2010.  Responding to a march (see video here of crowds chanting “Freedom, Peace and Security”) planned by the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and northern opposition parties, the Sudanese security forces violently quashed the demonstration and arrested a number of Sudanese politicians and activists.  We have been compiling information throughout the day.

The following is a run down and here is also a collection of pictures.

Amnesty International confirms that over 200 people, including opposition leaders and human rights activists, were arrested at the demonstration. It demanded that Sudanese authorities announce the names and whereabouts of those arrested and either charge them with recognized criminal offenses or release them immediately:

“This is yet another example of the culture of violence that the Sudanese government has adopted,” said Tawanda Hondora, deputy director of the Africa program at Amnesty International. “The government must respect the right of protesters to peacefully assemble and express their views. This is a crucial time for Sudan and all parties should abstain from using violence, especially in the light of the coming elections and referendum.”

Two of the leading members of the SPLM, Pagan Amum and Yasir Arman, were among those arrested. Our sources tell us that Arman was beaten severely by a group of police officers before being taken to the hospital.  Both men are now free. The children and grandchildren of Sudanese opposition leaders Sadiq al-Mahdi (Umma Party) and Hassan al-Turabi (Popular Congress Party) were also detained during the day. Here is an interview of Amum from prison:

All of us have been arrested in violation of our constitutional right of peaceful demonstration and marches. Our intention was to present a petition to the members of parliament to enact within these two weeks the Referendum Law on the right of self determination for the people of southern Sudan…Sudan is on the edge of an abyss and we must do everything to preventing it from falling into this abyss of disintegration and chaos…[We are protesting] so that these laws are enacted in conformity with the constitution so that there are freedoms which will ensure that the upcoming elections will be free and fair.

Al-Jazeera reported early this morning that the Sudanese security blocked them from covering the protests and confiscated their tapes.  Fortunately, they captured this footage before being shut down. Our colleague has quickly translated and transcribed two interviews in the footage.  The woman in a white toab(Sudanese national dress), a member of the Umma party, about a third of the way through the video says:

The arrest of the SPLM leaders and members of the Sudanese parliament has proved that there is no freedom in Sudan. This demonstration is peaceful, the people are peaceful. If the government is facing it with this number of military and police forces and with harassment and violence, that means this country doesn’t have freedom, no respect for law and order, no freedom of expression.  This consequently demonstrates the reality that the government is using the force to maintain its seat (in power) and is not allowing any democratic transformation in this country to take place.

After this interview, the man in suit, a member of PCP, asserts:

It’s impossible for the election to take place in an environment dominated by oppression and dictatorship. It’s crucial to change the laws one of which was referenced by the police today to justify their reaction to the protest…because the government’s justification for their reaction is Article 127 of the Sudanese criminal laws that allows the authorities to stop any kind of demonstration or protest even if its peaceful, as well as prohibiting any gathering for delivering statements of protests to the government…The demonstration is calling for the reform and amendment of many laws that were supposed to be amended based on the Sudanese Interim National Constitution.

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Elections in Sudan (1986)

First posted at Save Darfur…

My colleague Alex Meixner and I have recently written on the importance of the national elections in Sudan scheduled for April 2010 (here and here).

Going forward, the Save Darfur policy team will be writing periodic updates on the preparations for the elections, the political climate for free and fair elections, and how the elections are being used by various actors in Sudan to support their own agendas – especially Omar al-Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP).

Reuters sounded an alarm yesterday with the headline, “Millions Could Miss Sudan Elections – Observers.” The story cited the Carter Center’s statement that their observation teams working in Sudan:

expressed concern that while turnout has been high in certain states, participation has been uneven and many states appear to lag behind in meeting registration targets.  In light of these challenges, the Center also urged the NEC [National Election Commission] and Sudan’s state elections committees to make available additional funds for the registration process; redouble efforts to ensure that registration books and materials reach as many eligible Sudanese as possible, especially in areas with difficult logistical and security challenges; and expand civic education on voter registration.

The Center also urged the NEC and state elections committees to “take action to ensure timely accreditation for both national and international observers so that they can observe the entire electoral process, both during and after vote.”

Perhaps more disturbingly, the Center also warned of the Sudanese government’s efforts to intimidate voters in Darfur. The Sudan Tribune writes that the Center:

detailed specific instances of concern, such as the presence of agents of the National Intelligence and Security Service at registration centers in Darfur. The [Carter] statement noted that “NISS is not an agency perceived neutrally by a substantial proportion of the population. Through their mere presence at centers, NISS agents may serve to intimidate some citizens from registering.”

This statement comes four days after the U.S. Special Envoy for Sudan, Scott Gration, returned from Sudan andasserted his own concerns “about the chances for conducting credible elections and referenda.” Rather than identifying any of the problems highlighted by the Carter Center and others, Gration’s statement merely urged:

Sudanese citizens [to] take advantage of the recently announced one-week extension to register to vote, as it is the only way for the Sudanese people to maintain their right to participate in the national elections in April 2010.

So where do things stand today?  The elections (delayed six more days by the NEC last week) are scheduled to begin on April 11.  Who will participate remains to be seen.  Two days ago, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the northern opposition parties stated that their leaders would wait until December 12 to decide on their participation.  Since the signing of the Juba Declaration in September, they have set out the following conditions for their participation:

• The upholding of basic freedoms as stipulated in the Basic Human Rights Charter which has been incorporated in Interim National Constitution of 2005; and
• The amendment of all laws related to freedoms and democratic transformation and bringing them in consonance with the INC, namely the National Security Law, Criminal Procedures Law, Trade Unions Law, Immunities Law, Personal Status Law, Press and Publications Law, Public Order Laws.

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