Vice President Joe Biden arrived in Egypt on Sunday to begin an important weeklong trip to Africa. Before his departure from Washington, the Save Darfur Coalition sent Mr. Biden an urgent appeal to make the dangerous situations in Sudan a top priority during his scheduled meetings with Egyptian, Kenyan, and South African leaders.

These three African powerhouse countries all have a stake in the future of Sudan. As neighbors, Egypt and Kenya would feel the direct impact of increased instability throughout the country, and especially the renewal of the North/South war. Egypt’s primary concern is the free flow of the Nile, although like Kenya it also fears a flood of refugees that would flee any new conflict. On the other hand, in the event that the Southern Sudanese choose independence next January in the referendum, Cairo and Nairobi could also reap considerable benefits from a peaceful separation. Investors in both countries, for example, are eyeing attractive business opportunities in a newly sovereign South Sudan that will be built from the ground up.

It is not surprising, therefore, that Egypt and Kenya have long played a role in regional peacemaking efforts to resolve Sudan’s decades of conflict. As a leading country within the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (a seven-country regional development organization for East Africa), Kenya provided the chief mediator and critical political support to the negotiations that resulted in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed in 2005 between the National Congress Party and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M). During the North/South civil war, Egypt also attempted to broker talks and allowed both the SPLA/M and northern opposition to meet regularly in Cairo. As a continental diplomatic powerhouse, South Africa also consistently pressed both sides to end the war, and now South Africa chairs the AU Ministerial Committee on Post-Conflict Reconstruction and Development in the Sudan (PCRD) and former South African President Thabo Mbeki now leads the African Union’s High Level Implementation Panel on Sudan.

While all three countries have sought to help Sudanese handle their recurring crises at different times in the past, not all of their contributions have been positive, nor coordinated. Most recently, Egypt has allegedly obstructed progress in the Darfur peace talks in Doha out of envy that the Qataris were taking the lead in the negotiations. With a declared preference for unity rather than separation, Egyptian officials have also sent mixed signals about whether they will recognize the results of the referendum. The situation of tens of thousands of Sudanese refugees living in Egypt has also grown more precarious as Egyptian security have at times arbitrarily harassed, detained and threatened refugees with illegal deportation.

Since the signing of the CPA, Kenya has firmly supported its full implementation.  A recent International Crisis Group report states: “For the most part, Kenya long managed to be pro-South without being anti-North, though its inclinations are now well known in Khartoum.”  With that said, Kenya has played a role in furthering a dangerous arms race between Juba and Khartoum by serving as a conduit for unreported and potentially illegal shipments of tanks and other arms to the Government of South Sudan.

As for South Africa, its diplomats at the UN Security Council, UN Human Rights Council and African Union during the past presidency of Thabo Mbeki often protected Khartoum from official condemnation and other resolutions attempting to apply pressure on the Sudanese government for its actions in Darfur. Current President Jacob Zuma’s strong support of the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for President Omar Al Bashir, as well as criticism of the recent elections, suggest that the country’s foreign policy has shifted considerably.

Given this mixed history of involvement by each country and their ongoing relationships with key actors in Sudan, the U.S. must collaborate closely with Cairo, Nairobi and Pretoria over the next six months and beyond to confront the multiple challenges in Sudan. These capitals also are influential in shaping regional policy approaches through the African Union and all have contributed troops to the United Nations/African Union peacekeeping mission in Darfur (UNAMID).

In Save Darfur’s letter, we specifically asked that Vice President Biden seek commitments from these countries to cooperate with the U.S. in the following:

• Sending a unified message to all parties in Sudan that attempts by any party to delay, disrupt, or undermine the implementation of the final stages of the CPA will be met with serious multilateral consequences;

• Supporting the peace process in Darfur by pressing the Sudanese government and all belligerents to commit to a cease-fire and return to the negotiating table;

• Encouraging UNAMID to expand its footprint in Darfur so that it is able to cover more areas and protect more civilians at risk of violence;

• Seeking justice for victims and accountability for the perpetrators of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide in Darfur; and

• Demanding respect for all political and civil rights of Sudanese per the Interim Constitution by using unilateral and multilateral mechanisms to apply appropriate pressure on the governments in power in Khartoum and Juba.

Securing regional buy-in on these initiatives is critical in helping the Sudanese create an environment where they can tackle the interlocking political crises and challenges without a resort to deadly violence. Equally important, the current trip represents an ideal opportunity for the Obama administration to demonstrate to it’s African partners and other international stakeholders that the U.S. is ready to lead those in the international community committed to working together toward a final end to the conflict in Darfur, a peaceful referendum period, and the protection of human and political rights across Sudan.

Ultimately, he concludes:

Obama is coming up against the limitations of engagement. What if people around the world want more than a humble adjustment in America’s tone and behavior? What if American overtures to nasty regimes fail, because those regimes have a different view of their own survival? Then the President will have to devise a fallback strategy—preferably one that answers the desires of the people who applauded in Cairo, and doesn’t leave another generation cynical about American promises.

It’s my hope that in analyzing U.S. policy toward Sudan over the last few months that I have appropriately framed the challenges facing the administration. Engagement, even with the likes of the Bashir regime, is the preferred strategy – but it must have limits. Silently acquiescing fully to political violence and oppression not only protects those in power from the  range of influences of American foreign policy and that of our allies, it also undercuts the courageous efforts of reformers within these countries who are daily fighting for change.    

This morning though we must give the administration some deserved credit. Yesterday, it sharply rebuked Egypt’s decision to extend yet again the “emergency law” that grants its security apparatus the right to arrest people without charge, detain prisoners indefinitely, limit freedom of expression and assembly, and maintain a special security court. From the State Department:

Today, the Government of Egypt announced that it is extending the State of Emergency for an additional two years. This extension is regrettable given the pledge made by the government to the Egyptian people in 2005. A broad range of Egyptian voices, including Egypt’s National Council on Human Rights, have called for the elimination of the State of Emergency…We are confident that Egypt can draft and adopt effective counterterrorism legislation that conforms to international standards for civil liberties and due process. And the United States urges Egypt to complete this legislation on an urgent basis and to rescind the State of Emergency within the coming months.

Egypt, as Packer writes, represents an “important test” for the administration’s policy of engagement. The fact that Obama delivered his famous speech to the Muslim world in Cairo makes it symbolic as well. Therefore, let’s applaud the administration for being on the right side of this issue – and then immediately expect even more. As the elections in Egypt near this summer and next year, it will only become more difficult to stand up for basic political and human rights while maintaining appropriate influence with the regime whereby we can convince it to enact gradual, but real change for its people.

World Refugee Day Celebration; Cairo, Egypt (2005)

The elections in Sudan are understandably grabbing all of the headlines this week.  The National Election Commission today extended voting for two days because of the widespread confusion and delays in the electoral process. The opposition parties boycotting the elections also directly attacked U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan Scott Gration and former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, as the head of the Carter Center’s election monitoring team, for their support of these elections. It is their claim that the Obama administration has made a deal with Omar Al Bashir’s government to support fraudulent elections in exchange for the referendum of southern secession in January 2011. At Save Darfur, we have put together a full summary of the election-related developments.

Tonight though, I wanted to take a brief moment to highlight another human rights issue: the status of refugees in Egypt. The treatment and daily life of refugees – mostly from Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan – has never been easy. I know this from a year spent volunteering as an English teacher at a refugee center, Saint Andrews, in downtown Cairo. Due to these daily hardships, over the past few years, a number of refugees have attempted to travel to the Sinai peninsula and enter Israel illegally. In some instances, Egyptian security forces have shot at and killed refugees making the crossing, and the Israeli authorities have also violated the rights guaranteed to refugees.

Why am I writing about this tonight?  Because at least two Darfuris in Egypt are at immediate risk of forcible return to Sudan. Amnesty International issued a warning on Friday that the authorities planned to return Sudanese refugees Mohamed Adam Abdallah and Ishaq Fadl Dafallah to Sudan today, April 12. If returned, Amnesty warned that they would be in grave danger of being tortured or otherwise ill-treated in Sudan.

This warning comes on the heels of a Human Right Watch statement two weeks ago that:

Egyptian border guards have shot dead three migrants attempting to cross from Egypt to Israel over the past four days, bringing the total number of migrants shot dead at the border so far this year to 12…The Egyptian authorities have arrested a number of refugees over the past month, one of whom remains missing, and the authorities also appear to be preparing to deport two refugees from Darfur back to Sudan, where they face detention and torture.

One Darfuri detained is the brother of a dear friend of mine, Fatima Haroun, who is a active leader of the Darfuri diaspora community in the United States. Michelle at Change.org last week wrote about Faisal Haroun’s experience. In the post, she quotes Fatima:

I was promised that I would be able to get in touch with him, but finally was informed that the Egyptian authorities now are denying that Faisal is even in jail. This scares and terrifies me very much since it has been more than two months and no one is able to locate my brother. My other brother was tortured the entire time he was detained. Faisal also has a stomach ulcer and requires special diet, which I am sure will not be provided, if he has been offered any food at all.

Michelle provides information on how individuals can urge Egyptian authorities to provide access to legal counsel for Faisal; ultimately release him; and cease harassing, through arrest and detention, other detained refugees.

Amnesty also asks people to send appeals to the Egyptian Minister of the Interior, Prosecutor General, and Deputy Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs for Human Rights.

Given the very real risks to these individuals, I hope that you might take a few minutes to help.

On Darfur, Alex de Waal takes on the chatter among some Darfuris about self-determination. He discusses the various arguments in support of self-determination in the context of current Sudanese politics. And this week in the medical journal The Lancet researchers concluded that about 300,000 people died over the past six years in Darfur, but that disease, rather than violence, killed at least 80 percent of them. This is probably the most reliable mortality study to date. I am sure people like Mahmood Mamdani will make as much hay as they can with this study to argue that the conflict in Darfur has been exaggerated by activists. He and others will no doubt in the process conveniently ignore the fact that roughly 3 million Darfuris fled the violence and still remain in displaced camps.

On the United Arab Emirates, The New York Times ran a more analytical than normal piece on the now crumbling image of the Emirates as an Arab model of modernity: “Then the crash came and revealed how paper-thin that image was, political and financial analyst. That realization, not just in Dubai but also in Abu Dhabi, the oil-rich capital of the United Arab Emirates, has cast a harsh light on an opaque, top-down decision-making process, not just in business but in matters of crime and punishment as well, political and financial analysts said.”

And here are some quick recommendations of other interesting pieces:

• Marc Lynch on the controversial politics of Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the most influential satellite mufti: “Hate him or love him, the man has a keen sense of Arab opinion — whether he’s following or leading it — and has a proven track record of driving the debate.”

• US Policy in Gaza Remains Unchanged: My friend Amjad Atallah at the New America Foundation in the article argues that the United States is seen as completely complicit in the humanitarian crisis: “The idea that the U.S. is impotent… is something that no Palestinian in Gaza who we met believed.”

• Human Rights Watch’s Seven Principles for Effective International Engagement in Yemen: “To be effective, international counterterrorism policy in Yemen should take into account the lessons from the response to al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan: military tactics such as airstrikes that cause high civilian casualties, and arbitrary arrests and abusive treatment of suspected militants undermine efforts to reduce local support for al Qaeda. The Yemeni government has engaged in all of these actions against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).”

• UN Dispatch – American Engagement Caucus Formed: Russ Carnahan, a Democrat and Anh “Joseph” Cao, a Republican, launched the “American Engagement Caucus” at an event on Capitol Hill last week. The caucus is dedicated to  enhancing international cooperation and engagement.

This scoop came from Safwat El-Sherif, the Secretary General of Hosni Mubarak’s National Democratic Party and the Chairman of the Egyptian Shura Council. El-Sherif made these comments to a delegation of visiting Sudanese journalists in Cairo. He also stressed that Egypt views Sudan as its “strategic depth” and, as such, the country will spare no efforts to keep Sudan unified, strong, safe and secure.

What does this mean concerning Egypt’s response to a vote for southern secession in 2011? Well, probably not much, since first El-Sherif does not really make foreign policy and second Egypt has been sending mixed signals for months. At times, officials have said they would support southern independence and at other times they have hedged on such support. The debate about what to do in Cairo is likely still ongoing, given its importance to Egyptian national security.

However, El-Sherif’s interesting justification for a unified Sudan was only matched by his description of the wall that Egypt is building on its border with Gaza and his explanation of the current press freedoms in Egypt.

On unity: A generation was brought up on a love for Sudan and the unity of the Nile Valley. Such a generation believes in the unity of the Nile Valley and went out into the streets for it.

• In fact, Sudanese chose independence in 1956. Sudanese leaders have often criticized Egypt’s intrusive  foreign policy that seems to forget often this historical and political reality.

On Palestine: There is no wall of steel, but actions of the armed forces to protect Egypt’s national security…We are free to choose the way we protect our national security.

• In fact, the wall is made of super-strength steel says the BBC and Egypt has been complicit with Israel in the humanitarian blockade of Gaza.

On Freedoms: Egypt is experiencing unprecedented levels of freedom of opinion and expression, and it has allowed freedoms unprecedented in other Arab countries.

• In fact, Egypt has very restrictive press laws. On Friday, authorities arrested 20 prominent bloggers who had traveled to Upper Egypt to show solidarity with victims of recent sectarian violence. They were released the next day.

It’s not just Sudan…more on China in Africa: The New York Times highlights political implications of a Chinese scholarship program for Namibia’s elite; China and Senegal hope to enhance military cooperation; and at the Globalist, two authors convincingly argue that “China is currently pursuing oil resources in unstable countries without regard for the political risk entailed. While that might play well in the short- to medium-term, it could cost China dearly down the line.”

It’s not just China increasing influence in Africa: Saudi Arabia held the first meeting of the Saudi-East Africa Forum in Addis Ababa this week. Representatives from seven East African countries attended: Ethiopia, Djibouti, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Uganda and Rwanda.  A Saudi minister stated, “Saudi Arabia is committed to combating hunger, to provide support for the host country but also to generate exports. We are not to impose our needs above the needs of local population.” Sudan did not participate in the forum; however, the Saudi Development Fund announced this week that it was donating 15 million dollars for development and rehabilitation in Darfur.  The money will go to the “model villages” that the Arab League has pushed as an effort to help IDPs in Darfur return to normal lives.

Whither Yemen? Thats the title of a good blog summarizing the current challenges facing Yemen’s leadership.  It concludes that “the period ahead for Yemen is likely to be, to paraphrase Hobbes, ‘nasty and brutish.’” Another blog challenges the notion that Saudi Arabia’s recent intervention in Yemen’s conflict with the Houthi rebels could be good for the US because it will lead to the further militarization of the Gulf and a strong Sunni and Gulf alliance against Iranian encroachment throughout the Arab world. Ian Bremmer at Foreign Policy tends to agree that greater militarization and more proxy wars are usually not constructive anywhere and argues that a failed state next to the world’s largest oil exporter is reason enough for Americans to care about the conflict.

Updates on Ethiopia, Somalia, and Egypt: The Sahel Blog tries to get a handle on what’s happening in the Ogaden region of Ethiopia and how it relates to the never-ending conflict in Somalia.  Meanwhile, the War and Peace blog reflects on the significance of the killing of a Somali judge, who “devoted his life not only to the rule of law but to the pursuit of justice according to the sometimes conflicting state, Islamic, and Somali customary law systems in an incredibly volatile political environment.”  And finally a former professor of mine, Jon Alterman, explains how “Gamal Mubarak has cast himself as an executive and not a dictator” and made the necessary connections with the security and intelligence bosses to secure power once Hosni hands him the reins of Egypt.

Sarah Palin versus the White House on Settlement Expansion: The White House stood up forcefully this week to further settlement expansions in the West Bank, while Sarah Palin ringingly and shockingly endorsed Israelis rights to build as many settlements as they wish anywhere (!) because – in her unbelievable words – “more and more Jewish people will be flocking to Israel in the days and weeks and months ahead.”

Other Tidbits: Rob Crilly quickly notes steep decline of Darfur coverage and asks, “How do we keep people interested in just another African disaster?”  From an organization concerned about those displaced in Darfur and other conflicts, Refugees International is taking the lead on “climate displacement” but tells us that “under international refugee law there can be no “climate refugees.” Therefore, they call for negotiation of “the international legal ramifications of the various scenarios” at the upcoming Copenhagen talks in December.

First, The Sudan Tribune has a bit more from Zhou Yongkang, the Chinese security chief, who led the delegation to Sudan this week and about whom I blogged yesterday. After his meeting with Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, he showered the man wanted on seven charges at the International Criminal Court with the following praise:

“As an old friend of the Sudanese president, I got a full sense of the profound changes that have taken place in Sudan under your leadership as soon as I stepped on Sudanese soil…This morning I visited the Khartoum Oil Refinery. Ten years ago it was a mere construction site. Today it is covered with one modern plant after another.”

Second, two leading Sudanese papers (Al-Rai Al-Aam and Al-Sahafa) this morning lead with stories about the aftermath of the Egypt-Algeria match on Wednesday.  Stating that President Hosni Mubarak thanked Bashir for the efforts of the Sudanese security, the articles try to put to rest rumors of new tensions between the Egyptians and Sudanese.  The articles also claim that at least 10 Algerian fans are being held in Khartoum and will face charges in Sudanese courts for their assaults on Egyptian fans after the game.

Many Sudanese are upset with the way in which the Egyptian media attacked the Sudanese for their inability to maintain order.  They feel like its yet another demonstration of the colonial mindset of the Egyptians – too many of whom, they claims, still revel in the nostalgia of the Anglo-Egyptian Condominium from 1899-1955. For an Egyptian perspective of what happened in Khartoum though, check out this article in Al-Ahram Weekly, as well as Dina Ezzat in the same issue who “laments the senseless Egyptian-Algerian furore.”

Soccer is more than just a sport for Egyptians. A recent victory in a do-or-die match against Algeria has captivated the entire nation, as well as Western observers. The LA Times blog Babylon and Beyond describes how Egypt “wishes for soccer glory as compensation to tough living.” The blog quotes sociologist Sayed Eweis, who explains soccer “is something that makes [Egyptians] happy.” Writing in The Guardian, Mohamed El Dahshan elaborates that soccer “acts as a catharsis for political frustration and a proxy for popular participation” in Egypt.

I also forgot to mention yesterday that Egypt’s win on Saturday forced a “sudden death” World Cup qualifying match that will be held tomorrow in, of all places, Khartoum.  A blogger at The New York Times highlights the irony:

In Sudan, there is a love-hate relationship with Egypt, and there will be a huge number of Algerian supporters on hand Wednesday for the World Cup playoff game between the Pharaohs and the Desert Foxes. You have to wonder why Egypt chose this country to host the game, with a place in South Africa on the line.

The Sudanese papers this morning covered the extensive security arrangements being made and reported on the scores of planes being chartered from both Algiers and Cairo. The Telegraph reports:

“We expect 48 aircraft from Algeria and 18 from Egypt,” said Khartoum state governor Abdelrahman al-Khidr, noting about 2,000 Egyptians were also expected to take buses, while thousands already lived and worked in Khartoum.

It’s also not just Egyptians who have acted out violently due to the passions of the game.  The Financial Times carries a story of Algerians attacking Egyptian businessmen and enterprises in Algeria. It notes that Egypt is the largest investor in Algeria outside the oil and gas sector.

For tomorrow though, lets put politics aside for 90 minutes, hope for a great game (meaning an Egyptian victory), and of course a day free of violence.  Yalla Masr!

Egypt defeated Algeria this weekend in a World Cup qualifying match that was preceded and followed by violence. Days before the game, three Algerian players were slightly injured in Cairo when Egyptian youth attacked their bus. Then, following the stunning last-minute victory by Egypt (watch the video above), near riots broke out in the streets resulting in 32 injuries.

Having lived in Cairo and watched intense national rivalry games on small television sets at dusty coffee shops in dark alleys surrounded by over-caffeinated and over-zealous young men, I can picture perfectly the scene Hannah Allam describes:

Fireworks are exploding, police sirens are blaring, horns are honking, music is thumping and at least six processions of young men with drums have passed noisily in front of my building. Sporadic gunfire is keeping the whole block’s residents in from their balconies.

Tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of Egyptians are flooding the streets draped in the red, white and black of the national flag and generally whooping it up. They have reason to celebrate: the Egyptian national soccer team beat archrival Algeria tonight in a World Cup qualifier. The two teams will play again Wednesday in Sudan.

“This is what a revolution could look like,” an Egyptian friend observed, wistfully, of the fervor in the streets.

With a completely calcified political scene, football serves as one of the only outlets for national pride and competitive domestic politics in Egypt. Elections for the position of president of the two main Cairo clubs - Al-Ahly and Zamalek – are more hotly contested than any government position in the country.

Imagine what the pent up frustration of millions of young Egyptians could do if focused on a political target? Perhaps Gamal Mubarak?  Could this happen if Hosni suddenly passes away or, if before that, he unconstitutionally attempts to hand over power to his son?  Given the police state that is modern-day Egypt, this revolution en masse may never take place. But no one knows for sure until the fortitude of the carefully calibrated system of repression is truly tested.

And this finally brings me to what else happened on Saturday. Kareem el-Shae’r, an Egyptian blogger and political activist, was found beaten, injured and covered with his own blood. A member of the opposition Al-Ghad party of Ayman Nour (who also has spent much of the last few years in prison), Kareem had been arrested and harassed previously during the protests calling for judicial independence in 2006.

His case unfortunately is not unique and it will certainly not be the last. For so many years, the Egyptian security service has systematically intimidated, harassed, and tortured those in Egypt who have publicly challenged the system. It is this quiet form of repression – that looks much different, for example, than the wholesale political cleansing of Saddam’s Iraq – that keeps Mubarak safely in power, but continues to stir a boiling pot. When change does finally come to this petrified and decaying state, few know whether the political status quo can be maintained or whether, like after a staggering football victory or defeat, thousands of young men will flow out into the streets firing their guns and setting off explosions.

With no dramatic political reforms on the foreseeable horizon, such could be a frightening future for Egypt.