Brains Like a Shoe

Some good articles and blog posts on issues covered recently here at Brains Like a Shoe.

On Darfur, Alex de Waal takes on the chatter among some Darfuris about self-determination. He discusses the various arguments in support of self-determination in the context of current Sudanese politics. And this week in the medical journal The Lancet researchers concluded that about 300,000 people died over the past six years in Darfur, but that disease, rather than violence, killed at least 80 percent of them. This is probably the most reliable mortality study to date. I am sure people like Mahmood Mamdani will make as much hay as they can with this study to argue that the conflict in Darfur has been exaggerated by activists. He and others will no doubt in the process conveniently ignore the fact that roughly 3 million Darfuris fled the violence and still remain in displaced camps.

On the United Arab Emirates, The New York Times ran a more analytical than normal piece on the now crumbling image of the Emirates as an Arab model of modernity: “Then the crash came and revealed how paper-thin that image was, political and financial analyst. That realization, not just in Dubai but also in Abu Dhabi, the oil-rich capital of the United Arab Emirates, has cast a harsh light on an opaque, top-down decision-making process, not just in business but in matters of crime and punishment as well, political and financial analysts said.”

And here are some quick recommendations of other interesting pieces:

• Marc Lynch on the controversial politics of Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the most influential satellite mufti: “Hate him or love him, the man has a keen sense of Arab opinion — whether he’s following or leading it — and has a proven track record of driving the debate.”

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My favorite story in the Sudanese press yesterday came from Al Ray Al Aam. The headline read: “Egypt: the relationship between al-Bashir and Mubarak is stronger than it’s perceived by enemies.”

This scoop came from Safwat El-Sherif, the Secretary General of Hosni Mubarak’s National Democratic Party and the Chairman of the Egyptian Shura Council. El-Sherif made these comments to a delegation of visiting Sudanese journalists in Cairo. He also stressed that Egypt views Sudan as its “strategic depth” and, as such, the country will spare no efforts to keep Sudan unified, strong, safe and secure.

What does this mean concerning Egypt’s response to a vote for southern secession in 2011? Well, probably not much, since first El-Sherif does not really make foreign policy and second Egypt has been sending mixed signals for months. At times, officials have said they would support southern independence and at other times they have hedged on such support. The debate about what to do in Cairo is likely still ongoing, given its importance to Egyptian national security.

However, El-Sherif’s interesting justification for a unified Sudan was only matched by his description of the wall that Egypt is building on its border with Gaza and his explanation of the current press freedoms in Egypt.

On unity: A generation was brought up on a love for Sudan and the unity of the Nile Valley. Such a generation believes in the unity of the Nile Valley and went out into the streets for it.

• In fact, Sudanese chose independence in 1956. Sudanese leaders have often criticized Egypt’s intrusive  foreign policy that seems to forget often this historical and political reality.

On Palestine: There is no wall of steel, but actions of the armed forces to protect Egypt’s national security…We are free to choose the way we protect our national security.

• In fact, the wall is made of super-strength steel says the BBC and Egypt has been complicit with Israel in the humanitarian blockade of Gaza.

On Freedoms: Egypt is experiencing unprecedented levels of freedom of opinion and expression, and it has allowed freedoms unprecedented in other Arab countries.

• In fact, Egypt has very restrictive press laws. On Friday, authorities arrested 20 prominent bloggers who had traveled to Upper Egypt to show solidarity with victims of recent sectarian violence. They were released the next day.

What an interesting week.  I was not able to blog on much of it, but here is what I was reading:

It’s not just Sudan…more on China in Africa: The New York Times highlights political implications of a Chinese scholarship program for Namibia’s elite; China and Senegal hope to enhance military cooperation; and at the Globalist, two authors convincingly argue that “China is currently pursuing oil resources in unstable countries without regard for the political risk entailed. While that might play well in the short- to medium-term, it could cost China dearly down the line.”

It’s not just China increasing influence in Africa: Saudi Arabia held the first meeting of the Saudi-East Africa Forum in Addis Ababa this week. Representatives from seven East African countries attended: Ethiopia, Djibouti, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Uganda and Rwanda.  A Saudi minister stated, “Saudi Arabia is committed to combating hunger, to provide support for the host country but also to generate exports. We are not to impose our needs above the needs of local population.” Sudan did not participate in the forum; however, the Saudi Development Fund announced this week that it was donating 15 million dollars for development and rehabilitation in Darfur.  The money will go to the “model villages” that the Arab League has pushed as an effort to help IDPs in Darfur return to normal lives.

Whither Yemen? Thats the title of a good blog summarizing the current challenges facing Yemen’s leadership.  It concludes that “the period ahead for Yemen is likely to be, to paraphrase Hobbes, ‘nasty and brutish.’” Another blog challenges the notion that Saudi Arabia’s recent intervention in Yemen’s conflict with the Houthi rebels could be good for the US because it will lead to the further militarization of the Gulf and a strong Sunni and Gulf alliance against Iranian encroachment throughout the Arab world. Ian Bremmer at Foreign Policy tends to agree that greater militarization and more proxy wars are usually not constructive anywhere and argues that a failed state next to the world’s largest oil exporter is reason enough for Americans to care about the conflict.

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This week, I focused on China’s deepening economic relations with Sudan and the politics of football/soccer in Egypt. To round out these stories, I wanted to share a few more items from today’s papers.

First, The Sudan Tribune has a bit more from Zhou Yongkang, the Chinese security chief, who led the delegation to Sudan this week and about whom I blogged yesterday. After his meeting with Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, he showered the man wanted on seven charges at the International Criminal Court with the following praise:

“As an old friend of the Sudanese president, I got a full sense of the profound changes that have taken place in Sudan under your leadership as soon as I stepped on Sudanese soil…This morning I visited the Khartoum Oil Refinery. Ten years ago it was a mere construction site. Today it is covered with one modern plant after another.”

Second, two leading Sudanese papers (Al-Rai Al-Aam and Al-Sahafa) this morning lead with stories about the aftermath of the Egypt-Algeria match on Wednesday.  Stating that President Hosni Mubarak thanked Bashir for the efforts of the Sudanese security, the articles try to put to rest rumors of new tensions between the Egyptians and Sudanese.  The articles also claim that at least 10 Algerian fans are being held in Khartoum and will face charges in Sudanese courts for their assaults on Egyptian fans after the game.

Many Sudanese are upset with the way in which the Egyptian media attacked the Sudanese for their inability to maintain order.  They feel like its yet another demonstration of the colonial mindset of the Egyptians – too many of whom, they claims, still revel in the nostalgia of the Anglo-Egyptian Condominium from 1899-1955. For an Egyptian perspective of what happened in Khartoum though, check out this article in Al-Ahram Weekly, as well as Dina Ezzat in the same issue who “laments the senseless Egyptian-Algerian furore.”

The Project on Middle East Democracy has more coverage about the politics of Egyptian soccer in which they also nicely summarized my post from yesterday.  They write:

Soccer is more than just a sport for Egyptians. A recent victory in a do-or-die match against Algeria has captivated the entire nation, as well as Western observers. The LA Times blog Babylon and Beyond describes how Egypt “wishes for soccer glory as compensation to tough living.” The blog quotes sociologist Sayed Eweis, who explains soccer “is something that makes [Egyptians] happy.” Writing in The Guardian, Mohamed El Dahshan elaborates that soccer “acts as a catharsis for political frustration and a proxy for popular participation” in Egypt.

I also forgot to mention yesterday that Egypt’s win on Saturday forced a “sudden death” World Cup qualifying match that will be held tomorrow in, of all places, Khartoum.  A blogger at The New York Times highlights the irony:

In Sudan, there is a love-hate relationship with Egypt, and there will be a huge number of Algerian supporters on hand Wednesday for the World Cup playoff game between the Pharaohs and the Desert Foxes. You have to wonder why Egypt chose this country to host the game, with a place in South Africa on the line.

The Sudanese papers this morning covered the extensive security arrangements being made and reported on the scores of planes being chartered from both Algiers and Cairo. The Telegraph reports:

“We expect 48 aircraft from Algeria and 18 from Egypt,” said Khartoum state governor Abdelrahman al-Khidr, noting about 2,000 Egyptians were also expected to take buses, while thousands already lived and worked in Khartoum.

It’s also not just Egyptians who have acted out violently due to the passions of the game.  The Financial Times carries a story of Algerians attacking Egyptian businessmen and enterprises in Algeria. It notes that Egypt is the largest investor in Algeria outside the oil and gas sector.

For tomorrow though, lets put politics aside for 90 minutes, hope for a great game (meaning an Egyptian victory), and of course a day free of violence.  Yalla Masr!

Egypt defeated Algeria this weekend in a World Cup qualifying match that was preceded and followed by violence. Days before the game, three Algerian players were slightly injured in Cairo when Egyptian youth attacked their bus. Then, following the stunning last-minute victory by Egypt (watch the video above), near riots broke out in the streets resulting in 32 injuries.

Having lived in Cairo and watched intense national rivalry games on small television sets at dusty coffee shops in dark alleys surrounded by over-caffeinated and over-zealous young men, I can picture perfectly the scene Hannah Allam describes:

Fireworks are exploding, police sirens are blaring, horns are honking, music is thumping and at least six processions of young men with drums have passed noisily in front of my building. Sporadic gunfire is keeping the whole block’s residents in from their balconies.

Tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of Egyptians are flooding the streets draped in the red, white and black of the national flag and generally whooping it up. They have reason to celebrate: the Egyptian national soccer team beat archrival Algeria tonight in a World Cup qualifier. The two teams will play again Wednesday in Sudan.

“This is what a revolution could look like,” an Egyptian friend observed, wistfully, of the fervor in the streets.

With a completely calcified political scene, football serves as one of the only outlets for national pride and competitive domestic politics in Egypt. Elections for the position of president of the two main Cairo clubs - Al-Ahly and Zamalek – are more hotly contested than any government position in the country.

Imagine what the pent up frustration of millions of young Egyptians could do if focused on a political target? Perhaps Gamal Mubarak?  Could this happen if Hosni suddenly passes away or, if before that, he unconstitutionally attempts to hand over power to his son?  Given the police state that is modern-day Egypt, this revolution en masse may never take place. But no one knows for sure until the fortitude of the carefully calibrated system of repression is truly tested.

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(Matt Cardy/Getty Images)

On this Halloween weekend, I have been catching up with some reading in between watching the Gators take down the Bulldogs and partaking in some of the weekend festivities.

Here are a few items of interest and a few interesting pieces I have collected over the last week:

• In yesterday’s post, I mentioned the great coverage that the J Street conference received. Before the conference, a former AIPAC and Israeli embassy official Lenny Ben-David questioned “Why do so many Arabs contribute to an organization that purports to be ‘pro-Israel?’” A friend of mine, Rebecca Abou-Chedid, wrote an exceptional response in Foreign Policy to the distasteful accusations that her donation, because she is of Lebanese descent, “clearly indicates that…[her] dollars must be intended to advance some pernicious anti-Israel agenda — and that J Street must be the vehicle for those aims.”

• Ken Silverstein has ‘Six Questions for Desmond Travers on the Goldstone Report.’ Travers was one of four members on the UN fact finding mission that produced the report. A retired Colonel of the Army of the Irish Defence Forces, he discusses the criticism and reaction to the report.

• Concerning another issue of international justice, the Confirmation Hearing of Bahr Idriss Abu Garda, a Darfuri rebel leader, continued this week at the International Criminal Court in The Hague. He is being tried for attacking an African Union peacekeeping base in 2007.  His defense lawyer is making  the case that the AU base by that point in time had lost its protected status under international humanitarian law and had become a legitimate military target. Bec Hamilton is also following the case.

• Michael Kevane writes a post taking on the claim by J. Stephen Morrison and Jennifer G. Cooke at CSIS that ”Lack of consensus within the [Obama] administration has confused potential partners who have for some time seen the United States policy as hostage to zealous domestic pressures (emphasis added).”  It’s always amazing to me how much clout some people think that the Save Darfur Coalition and other Darfur organizations and activists have in the creation of U.S. policy.

• Fighting continues in Yemen, as The New York Times highlighted this week.  The paper also ran a great story this morning on the country’s unsustainable addiction to qat. The blog Waq al-Waq notes the better late than never acknowledgement by the U.S. State Department of the Yemeni government’s conflict with Houthi rebels in north Yemen.   A Yemeni humanitarian aid worker in an Emirati paper wrote a moving essay about his experience over the last few months: “I never thought I would be trapped in the place I call home, but all I can do is try in my own way to help those who have lost everything and pray that peace comes sooner rather than later.”

• Lastly, I continue to follow the rumblings surrounding Egyptian presidential elections in 2011.  The big questions, of course, are (first) will Hosni Mubarak run again;  and (second),  if not, will his son Gamal take his place.  This week, the noted Egyptian historian and philosopher Mohammed Hassanein Haikel expressed the common opinion of most Egyptians whom I know –  Gamal is “unfit” to be the next president.  He added, “They tell us we have elections, but is it a coincidence that the president’s son is portrayed as the most worthy to be the leader of Egypt?” Laura Rozen at Politico and others commented about intriguing statements from both Amr Moussa, the current head of the Arab League, and Mohamed El Baradei of the IAEA regarding their interests in running in 2011. Al Ahram Weekly (an English language state-owned newspaper) though ran a “news” story revealing that most ordinary Egyptians aren’t concerned about rumors or even who there next president will be.

Egypt is now suffering the consequences of irrationally killing all its pigs last spring.  The whole episode points to other major flaws in the system:

What started out as an impulsive response to the swine flu threat has turned into a social, environmental and political problem for the Arab world’s most populous nation.

It has exposed the failings of a government where the power is concentrated at the top, where decisions are often carried out with little consideration for their consequences and where follow-up is often nonexistent, according to social commentators and government officials….

“The state is troubled; as a result the system of decision making is disintegrating,” said Galal Amin, an economist, writer and social critic. “They are ill-considered decisions taken in a bit of a hurry, either because you’re trying to please the president or because you are a weak government that is anxious to please somebody.”

Meanwhile, my friend Nate tells a short story about the long suffering of  of a Kurdish family from Halabja.

Finally, Sec. of State Clinton raised some (lofty) expectations for this administration’s foreign assistance and development approaches at Brookings on Friday.  Until now, President Obama has been pillioried by the development community for his failure to appoint a USAID administrator:

Now, many of you have heard me describe our plans to integrate diplomacy and development as two of the three pillars in our foreign policy, along with defense. I’ve talked in different venues about the Obama Administration’s commitment to leading with diplomacy and engaging other nations. Next week, I will outline how we will approach development in tandem with our diplomacy – to be effective and efficient and enable the State Department, USAID, and the Millennium Challenge Corporation to pursue and execute 21st century foreign policy goals.

The foundation for our approach will be principles that will move us away from top-down assistance that too often fails to meet the needs of those we are attempting to help, or has only short-term effects. To solve the complex problems of poverty, hunger, health, climate change, where they intersect, we want to focus on those root causes, and look for approaches that really change, transform the environment in which people are making these decisions and in which governments are held accountable to a higher degree of performance and transparency. We will be looking for ways to not only explain our approach, but to highlight issues. I will be, for example, participating in an event with Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, hosted by the UN and the United States Government, on food security.