Sudan’s Dangerous Trajectory

A new military offensive in Darfur, the arrest of political leaders, and the shutting down of newspapers in Khartoum: election season must be over in Sudan. Emboldened by electoral “success,” Sudanese President Omar Al Bashir and his National Congress Party (NCP) are sending troubling signals about their philosophy that will guide post-election governance.

The push last Friday by the Sudanese Armed Forces to regain control over a stronghold of the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) in West Darfur kicked off seven days of violence and repression. The army reported that it killed 108 JEM fighters in the assault. Elsewhere in Darfur, JEM allegedly attacked a tanker truck killing 20 Sudanese police officers. Continued clashes between nomadic tribes and the kidnapping of humanitarian aid workers – including an American – have only heightened tensions throughout Darfur.

Commenting yesterday on these recent developments before the United Nations Security Council, the Joint Special Representative for the United Nations/African Union peacekeeping mission (UNAMID) stated that continued fighting in Darfur has “caused substantial civilian casualties, the displacement of communities, and hampered the delivery of humanitarian assistance.” The U.S. State Department earlier in the week also condemned the “recent offensive actions in Darfur” and “urged both the Government of Sudan and the Darfur rebel movements to refrain from any further actions that would undermine the Darfur peace process or endanger civilians.”

Yet, blithely ignoring the deteriorating conditions in Darfur, an NCP leader told Darfuri students this week that his party was seeking to deepen peace and foster a culture of national unity (article in Arabic). Most people in Darfur instead fear that the faltering peace process, government offensive, and continuing crisis in Jebel Marra proffer a new post-election reality.

Critics and opposition leaders in Khartoum share such concerns…

Read the rest here

Also, two nights ago I spoke with WSCOC-TV out of Charlotte, North Carolina about the kidnapping of three aid workers – one of them American – in Darfur with the organization Samaritan’s Purse which is based in Boone, NC. Today, I heard that the two Sudanese men kidnapped were released, but the American woman remains held hostage.

Workers For Boone-Based Charity Kidnapped In Africa

BOONE, N.C. — Samaritan’s Purse, based in Boone, said three of its workers were kidnapped at gunpoint Tuesday in the Darfur region of Sudan.

Evangelist Franklin Graham, CEO of Samaritan’s Purse, said he’s in contact with the U.S. and Sudanese governments and is seeking their help in securing the safe return of the workers — a woman from California and two Sudanese men.

The three were in a two-vehicle convoy and were confronted by a group of armed men, according to a statement from the charity.

Channel 9 spoke with a senior policy analyst for the Save Darfur Coalition Tuesday, who said kidnappings have become more common in the region.

“The last two years have been the most dangerous for aid workers in Darfur than at any time since the genocide in Darfur began in 2003,” Sean Brooks said.

Samaritan’s Purse says it has provided $83.7 million in assistance to Sudan over the past decade.

On Wednesday, U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan Scott Gration testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the challenges facing the forty million people of Sudan. General Gration gave a sobering and honest assessment of the post-election situation in Darfur, where violence has been on the rise, and of the potential roadblocks to a peaceful and transparent referenda process early next year.

The Senators pressed General Gration on the administration’s plans and available resources to respond effectively to “all possible scenarios.” As Senator John Kerry noted, the international community is in a rare position to have “a map of the fault-lines” of a crisis. While General Gration seemed to be surprisingly comfortable with the current resources at his own disposal within the State Department, he acknowledged the magnitude of the challenge. For example, General Gration agreed with the recent assessment by Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair that South Sudan is currently the area of the world most at-risk for mass killing or genocide. He also highlighted the key issues that could be triggers for conflict during the referendum period – most notably the demarcation of borders and oil sharing.

On Darfur, General Gration stressed for the first time in unequivocal language that general insecurity and lawlessness remains his chief concern.  Rather than once again touting gains from the protracted peace talks in Doha or the diplomatic rapprochement between Sudan and Chad, he stated bluntly that such progress on the strategic level “has not changed the lives of people on the ground…[who] don’t have a way out.” Specifically, he noted as unacceptable the continuing offensive in Jebel Marra, the continued aerial bombardments by the Sudanese Armed Forces, and the breakdown in the ceasefire between the Justice and Equality Movement and the Sudanese government.  His frank acknowledgement of the unfilled gaps in services for victims of gender-based violence since the expulsion of 13 humanitarian aid organizations in March 2009 was also particularly noteworthy.

To make progress on comprehensive security in Darfur, General Gration described his efforts to push the United Nations/African Union peacekeeping force to “get out of the [major] towns” and to patrol the roads and the rural areas. This appeal carried the caveat that it is the Government of Sudan that has the ultimate responsibility to provide protection to its citizens and that they continue to fail miserably. In highlighting the unchanged mentality of the regime, he noted that the walis (governors) and local government leaders in Darfur have done very little to put in legal systems to identify those who commit crimes and then to bring them to justice.

With such disturbing realities in Darfur and potential for violence in the South, the Senators wanted to know how the United States could increase its leverage in Sudan. Some, like Senator Roger Wicker, accurately questioned whether Secretary Hillary Clinton or Ambassador Susan Rice should be making this more of a personal priority. He even noted a series of ads by Save Darfur and some of our partners making this case. In response, General Gration felt that the current level of involvement of Clinton and Rice was sufficient. With that said, he also announced that he would be sending a senior level diplomat to Juba next month to lead a diplomatic surge before the referendum.

It was also refreshing to hear General Gration agree with Save Darfur’s position that the international community as a whole is not coordinated, nor doing enough – and that this must change. This point relates to another critical statement by Gration: that continuing to marginalize the regime in Khartoum can be an effective pressure point. This was his response to a question from Senator Russell Feingold on what tools the United States would have available if Omar al-Bashir and his National Congress Party attempted to disrupt the 2011 referendum. General Gration would not reveal specific decisions that could be made by Obama’s National Security Council, but he said the United States would not tolerate any “messing” with the referendum. And then he importantly added that our forms of pressure can be more effective if we can get other nations to go along with them.

This revealing conversation then begs the question of what is the administration doing to make its incentives and pressures on the Sudanese government multilateral. The United States clearly did not attempt to sync closely its response to the fraudulent elections with other countries. So while a State Department spokesperson said the elections would not bestow legitimacy on the Bashir regime, there was not a coordinated message coming from our partners in Europe or important countries in Africa and the Arab world – some of which actually made statements suggesting the elections did meet certain standards of acceptability.

Going forward, if multilateral pressure is the most effective foreign policy tool, what are General Gration and the administration doing to establish a unified international plan on the following sticks and carrots? Here are a few areas that should be explored:

• Non-toleration for a Disrupted Referendum: while General Gration says a disruption will not be tolerated by the United States, it certainly could be by others in the same way the elections were accepted. What standards for success and consequences for failure are being jointly planned with European, African and Arab partners?
• Oil and wealth sharing: a critical issue for the Chinese and Japanese, the largest importers of Sudanese oil. Are the United States, China, and Japan coordinated in pressuring the North and South to reach a deal before the referendum?
• Border demarcation: both the African Union Panel on Darfur and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development are involved in the mediation of this issue. What consequences would other African countries have for either the North or the South if their actions were identified as obstructionist in finalizing the demarcation?
• Debt-relief: a carrot that the Sudanese government wants desperately. What conditions has the United States set and is it working with global partners on this issue?
• International Criminal Court: the non-cooperation of the Sudanese government and the indictment of Bashir will continue to make it a pariah state for many countries. Are the United States and its partners still clearly sending this message?

A troubled post-election Darfur: what did you expect?

Elections in Sudan concluded last month with indicted war criminal Omar Al-Bashir taking 68% of the vote. With his leading competitors deciding to boycott the elections, Bashir’s victory was never in doubt and, for many reasons, the international community could do nothing but assent implicitly or explicitly to the outcome. The man responsible for the heinous crimes in Darfur is critical to implementing the final stages of the North/South peace agreement, signed in 2005, that provides Southern Sudanese the opportunity to secede from Bashir’s rule in 2011. As troubled an experience as it has been for the marginalized communities of the South, no such silver lining as the referendum exists for those mired in the chaos that remains Darfur.

As such, it is important intellectually and morally for all interested parties to be clear that these elections were a disaster for efforts to achieve lasting peace, protection and justice in Darfur. How else can you interpret not only Bashir’s victory but that of notorious janjaweed leader Musa Hilal? This poster-child for atrocities in Darfur won a parliamentary seat and, presumably, the constitutional immunities that come with it. So much for Hilal, Bashir, or any other perpetrators being held accountable anytime soon.

[Read the rest at the Huffington Post]

This disheartening piece touches on many of the same issues addressed in an op-ed that my colleague Celeste and I wrote two weeks ago for The East African (of Kenya): “The big losers in Sudan’s flawed election are the abused and ignored people of Darfur.”

In the coming days, I will be writing additional posts on Sudan after the elections and in advance of the referendum in 2011, as well as a few other non-Sudan topics.  So stay tuned.

In his inaugural address, President Obama declared, “To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history; but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.” Unfortunately, in the case of Sudan, the hand remains extended, even as the fist remains clenched and poised to strike….It is not too late for President Obama to hold firm to his inaugural promise and declare his administration’s disapproval of politics as usual in Sudan. When the election results are announced this week, he can lead the international community in interpreting their significance. Rather than offering unearned praise, he should state that the administration still regards Bashir as an indicted war criminal on the wrong side of history. If the U.S. fails to stand up for its principles, advocates for democracy around the world will be disheartened, the Bashir government will continue to act with impunity, and the Sudanese people will lose faith in America, even as they face an uncertain and potentially dangerous future. (Read the rest of “Khartoum Dispatch: Assessing the Sudan Elections”)

Good timing for the report to be issued, as the administration’s response has been taking shape over the last 24 hours. My colleague, Robert Lawrence, provides a summary in our election roundup at Save Darfur. In short, the administration denounced the elections as neither free, nor fail – without assigning real blame to any actors in Sudan. The elections apparently were stolen by themselves.

In a short post today, I also reflect on what this means for politics going forward in Sudan over at Change.org:

The elections in Sudan over the last week have given rise to the broadest and most public debate about the governance of the country since before the 1989 coup that brought Omar Al-Bashir and his regime to power. Opposition parties, civil society organizations, and a nascent youth movement have participated loudly in the process — despite ever-present threats of intimidation and repression. These important elements of Sudanese society seized on the first openings of political space, even if many used the opportunity to boycott and denounce the electoral process…

A return, therefore, to purely autocratic politics may not be entirely possible. The chances, however, are more likely in the event that the Obama administration and others in the international community whitewash these elections and explicitly or implicitly confer legitimacy on the Bashir regime.

In response to this line of reasoning, James Traub at Foreign Policy writes on the Obama administration’s handling of the elections, and the advocacy community’s reaction to the administration’s overall policy of engagement. He asks some very relevant questions, such as: will engagement prove more effective this time than it did in the past?

After mildly critiquing the positions of Save Darfur and others for not being nuanced enough, he concludes:

Things could be different this time around. Just as pushing the “reset button” with Russia might have produced an atmosphere more conducive to arm-control talks that the Russians already saw as in their own interest, so the soft line on Sudan may make it easier for Bashir to accept what he already recognizes is inevitable. Does that mean the international community had to let him manipulate the election as he saw fit? No; I think the world could have, and should have, pushed him harder. And Bashir must always be aware that the ICC indictment is a very real Sword of Damocles hanging over his head. But he needs to feel that he can survive partition in order to accept it. Bashir does not deserve to survive, of course; he deserves to spend the rest of his life behind bars. But we will not help Sudan if we insist on treating him and his regime as they deserve.

There is of course a lot of logic to this argument. The main point, however, that I think Traub and many others have missed is that the possible secession of South Sudan next year – that which, he argues, Bashir must “accept” – is not the only game in town in Sudan. No matter the results of the referendum, seventy percent of the country will remain controlled by a small, unrepresentative clique that refuses to loosen their firm grip on the country. This imbalance of power will keep Darfur unresolved and perhaps lead to conflicts elsewhere in Sudan, and perhaps even with a newly sovereign southern neighbor. To “help Sudan” therefore, the Obama team must ensure that engagement convinces Bashir to stop repressing the Sudanese people and to open up political space – and not simply to allow the South escape.

World Refugee Day Celebration; Cairo, Egypt (2005)

The elections in Sudan are understandably grabbing all of the headlines this week.  The National Election Commission today extended voting for two days because of the widespread confusion and delays in the electoral process. The opposition parties boycotting the elections also directly attacked U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan Scott Gration and former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, as the head of the Carter Center’s election monitoring team, for their support of these elections. It is their claim that the Obama administration has made a deal with Omar Al Bashir’s government to support fraudulent elections in exchange for the referendum of southern secession in January 2011. At Save Darfur, we have put together a full summary of the election-related developments.

Tonight though, I wanted to take a brief moment to highlight another human rights issue: the status of refugees in Egypt. The treatment and daily life of refugees – mostly from Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan – has never been easy. I know this from a year spent volunteering as an English teacher at a refugee center, Saint Andrews, in downtown Cairo. Due to these daily hardships, over the past few years, a number of refugees have attempted to travel to the Sinai peninsula and enter Israel illegally. In some instances, Egyptian security forces have shot at and killed refugees making the crossing, and the Israeli authorities have also violated the rights guaranteed to refugees.

Why am I writing about this tonight?  Because at least two Darfuris in Egypt are at immediate risk of forcible return to Sudan. Amnesty International issued a warning on Friday that the authorities planned to return Sudanese refugees Mohamed Adam Abdallah and Ishaq Fadl Dafallah to Sudan today, April 12. If returned, Amnesty warned that they would be in grave danger of being tortured or otherwise ill-treated in Sudan.

This warning comes on the heels of a Human Right Watch statement two weeks ago that:

Egyptian border guards have shot dead three migrants attempting to cross from Egypt to Israel over the past four days, bringing the total number of migrants shot dead at the border so far this year to 12…The Egyptian authorities have arrested a number of refugees over the past month, one of whom remains missing, and the authorities also appear to be preparing to deport two refugees from Darfur back to Sudan, where they face detention and torture.

One Darfuri detained is the brother of a dear friend of mine, Fatima Haroun, who is a active leader of the Darfuri diaspora community in the United States. Michelle at Change.org last week wrote about Faisal Haroun’s experience. In the post, she quotes Fatima:

I was promised that I would be able to get in touch with him, but finally was informed that the Egyptian authorities now are denying that Faisal is even in jail. This scares and terrifies me very much since it has been more than two months and no one is able to locate my brother. My other brother was tortured the entire time he was detained. Faisal also has a stomach ulcer and requires special diet, which I am sure will not be provided, if he has been offered any food at all.

Michelle provides information on how individuals can urge Egyptian authorities to provide access to legal counsel for Faisal; ultimately release him; and cease harassing, through arrest and detention, other detained refugees.

Amnesty also asks people to send appeals to the Egyptian Minister of the Interior, Prosecutor General, and Deputy Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs for Human Rights.

Given the very real risks to these individuals, I hope that you might take a few minutes to help.

In scanning the news on Sudan early this morning, I came across a short item on Radio Dabanga’s website “Two opposition politicians arrested in Nyala” about a government security raid on the local headquarters of two national political parties.  As I wrote in an article at The New Republic today, this type of incident has been fairly common place during the two-month election period in Darfur and elsewhere in Sudan.

And then I realized that I had actually met one of those detained, Dr. Nour Al Sadiq.  She is currently an appointed member of National Parliament representing the Communist Party.  Along with her party, she chose not to contest the elections in Darfur.  In a few days, therefore, she will lose her seat – and, as these arrests may signal, her limited protection from harassment by the Sudanese regime.

To check up on Dr. Nour—who in addition to her parliamentary responsibilities works with women in internally displaced camps—I called Salih Mahmoud Osman.  Also from Darfur, he serves with Nour in the Parliament as one of two other appointed members from the Communist Party.  Salih has received many awards for his legal and human rights advocacy since the beginning of the crisis in Darfur, and for these efforts endured a prolonged period of detention in 2004.

From Khartoum, Salih confirmed the arrests and that the security agents stormed their office in Nyala yesterday and seized documents and computers. It seems that the authorities targeted her and the other leader, Abdul Rahman Ahmed Hassan of the Umma Party for Reform and Renewal, for signing a statement with others this week urging Darfuris to not participate in the elections. Fortunately after four hours, Nour was released, but only after repeated threats and intimidation to stop these activities.

In our conversation, Salih expressed his profound frustration with current US policy toward Sudan. He said, “People are really really sad and they are asking themselves why President Obama and his administration have set such low standards for the elections.” When I asked him about the US Special Envoy’s last minute efforts to salvage the elections after a number of parties announced their boycotts, Salih brushed them aside saying, “He has lost the respect of most individuals in Sudan – except for maybe the National Congress Party [Sudanese President Omar Al Bashir’s ruling party].”

Salih, Nour and others right now fear what will come after the elections. In the week before the polls open, they have heard rhetoric from NCP leaders like Nafie Ali Nafie that begin to reveal the regime’s plans for a new painful chapter in Darfur and Sudan.  At a rally this week, Nafie declared that overall participation of Darfuris in the election process will be high, and stated (article in Arabic):

“Darfuris will vote for the NCP to express their special relationship to the Salvation [the name for the Revolution of Salvation that seized power via military coup in 1989],” adding that Darfuris have sent clear signals to those trying to target the project of Sudan and the Salvation.

Nafie also promised the crowd that “Darfur will find salvation after an NCP victory.”

Perhaps what Nafie means by ‘salvation’ is what the International Crisis Group just predicted for post-election Darfur:

[T]he consequences for Darfur are catastrophic. Disenfranchising large numbers of people will only further marginalize them. Since the vote will impose illegitimate officials through rigged polls, they will be left with little or no hope of a peaceful change in the status quo, and many can be expected to look to rebel groups to fight and win back their lost rights and lands.

In addition, the report notes how “[w]inning big is…central to the NCP’s hopes of capturing enough votes in northern Sudan to ensure its continued national dominance.” It documents the numerous ways the NCP has cooked the books to achieve this objective.

The delusions of Nafie and the harassment yesterday of Nour and Abdul Rahman paint a bleak picture for Darfur and the rest of Sudan after the elections. It is clear that despite all of their protestations to the contrary the NCP and the Bashir regime have not changed.  It is therefore vital that President Obama see these elections for what they really are: just a new device to maintain control across Sudan and avoid real peacemaking in Darfur.

Already Stolen

A visit to Sudan makes clear: The election is going to be a sham.

In February, as part of a delegation from the Save Darfur Coalition, I met Mustafa Ismail in Khartoum. Ismail is the country’s former foreign minister and current presidential adviser to President Omar Al Bashir. He thanked us for our “timely visit,” then proceeded to speak almost uninterrupted for close to an hour about the Sudanese regime’s new commitment to democracy, peace, and development. To that end, he urged the international community to endorse the country’s upcoming nationwide elections and stop “inflaming” the situation in Sudan with false accusations.

Now, with the Sudanese vote set to begin this weekend, the Obama administration seems to be doing exactly what Ismail had wanted. Last month, Scott Gration, the U.S. special envoy to Sudan, said that “significant preparations have been made to ensure that the elections will really reflect the will of the people” (although he added that there were “logistical challenges” still to resolve). Then, last weekend—after the presidential candidate of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), the major party that represents southern Sudan, withdrew from the race, citing the prospect of massive fraud and intimidation—Gration said that members of Sudan’s electoral commission had “given [him] confidence that the elections … would be as free and as fair as possible,” adding that they “have gone to great lengths to ensure that the people of Sudan will have access to polling places and that the procedures and processes will ensure transparency.”

Gration’s optimism is baffling. As I learned during my recent four-week trip to Sudan—when I visited Khartoum, the southern part of the country, and Darfur—there is no chance that these elections will be even remotely free or fair. (Read the rest here)

Protection, Trust and UNAMID in Darfur

“We need active forces, not UNAMID. They are a tourism army,” declared a leader of an internally displaced persons (IDP) camp in West Darfur. He expressed in these words the frustrations of many Darfuris whom I met during a recent week spent travelling in Darfur. Another former state minister complained that the United Nations/African Union peacekeeping force (UNAMID) was “only good at writing reports in their air-conditioned offices.” With news that violence was flaring in the Jebel Marra area of Darfur and that UNAMID lacked the full authority to investigate the reports of civilian causalities and mass displacement there, these complaints certainly resonated.

Such blame, while understandable, should not be directed at those courageously serving or leading UNAMID. The Sudanese government and Darfuri rebel movements continue to prevent UNAMID from fully carrying out its mandate. The UN Security Council sent UNAMID to keep a peace that did not exist – a common refrain from those associated with the mission. In practice, this reality means that UNAMID can only carry out its Chapter 7 mandate and other duties to protect civilians with the consent of the Sudanese government. Only after you have sat in a UNAMID convoy as it passed through a Sudanese Armed Forces checkpoint do you understand the inherent restrictions on the mission.

Read the rest at Change.org

What the Islamic Conference got wrong on Darfur

Members of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) pledged $850 million dollars for future development in Darfur on Sunday in Cairo. Egypt and Turkey co-chaired the donor’s conference–which aimed to jumpstart international commitment to long-term reconstruction and development in Darfur after seven years of conflict, mass displacement, and humanitarian crisis. Some countries making generous pledges willfully ignored the ongoing security challenges and unresolved conflict between the Darfuri rebels and the Sudanese government. In this way, the OIC–like the League of Arab States in its response to the Darfur crisis–sought to help the people of Darfur without addressing those most responsible for their deplorable conditions.

Read the rest at Foreign Policy’s Middle East Channel

And here is a piece on the Darfur peace process that I posted at Huffington Post.

Darfuri Civil Society: Still Missing from the Table

“This step constitutes a strong and vital addition to efforts to bring peace in Darfur,” declared Sudan’s Second Vice President Ali Osman Taha in Doha yesterday, after signing a framework agreement with the Liberation and Justice Movement (LJM). That may be true, but as I wrote last week, peace in Darfur remains a long way off.

Read the rest at Huffington Post

Abou Shouk Camp, near El-Fasher (Save Darfur/Mark Lotwis)

First posted at Save Darfur…

A month ago in one of my first meetings in Khartoum, I sat through an extended lecture from Dr. Hasabu Abdel-Rahman, the Humanitarian Aid Commissioner.  For more than an hour, he extolled the ability of the Sudanese state to provide for the millions of displaced in Darfur and sharply critiqued the international humanitarian assistance efforts.  It was his opinion that Darfur is well on its way to a full recovery. He shot out statistic after statistic to make his case, including that over 1.2 million Darfuris had returned home from 2007 to 2009 – a number flatly denied by numerous sources during the rest of our trip.

Dr. Hasabu also wanted us to know that international NGOs lack appropriate transparency mechanisms . He complained that while the Sudanese government is forced to sign numerous “treaties” and documents holding them accountable for international assistance that donors and NGOs act with few constraints.  His argument carried with it the implicit accusation that one of his employees made directly when we visited Abou Shouk camp outside of El-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur.  This man argued with a straight face that 80% of the budget of INGOs goes to administrative costs and only 20% go to services for the people. He said that these organizations are making millions off of the suffering in Darfur.

Therefore, I found it highly ironic yesterday when I read a story in the Sudan Tribune about Dr. Hasabu:

The Sudanese cabinet issued an unannounced decision to investigate the disappearance of 10 billion pounds from the ministry of humanitarian affairs, a newspaper reported today.

The Akhir-Lahza newspaper said that the council of Ministers wants a probe into the performance of the ministry and the relationship between the minister and the state minister.

Furthermore the report indicated that the humanitarian aid commissioner Hasabu Abdel-Rahman has been relieved from his duties but did not say when the decision was taken. The Sudanese official is running for parliamentary elections and is therefore prohibited from keeping his position at the ministry.

The newspaper quoted reliable sources saying that issue is an outcome of what it called the chaos in decision-making within the ministry and spoke unaccounted funds including eight billion pounds earmarked for the emergency program, two billion pounds for humanitarian action.

I hope Dr. Hasabu takes care in his own involuntary return.