Over the last two days, Secretary Hillary Clinton and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner have led a U.S. delegation to Beijing for the second joint meeting of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue. The meetings focused on a range of economic and political issues of mutual concern for the two countries. As Secretary Clinton remarked on Sunday, “Few global problems can be solved by the United States or China acting alone. And few can be solved without the United States and China working together.”

How the international community deals with the interlocking crises in Sudan is no exception. Therefore, I was pleased to hear that Sudan was on the formal agenda of the two days of talks. It reportedly was one of only two non-regional issues that will be discussed. With that said, it’s unclear whether the discussions are making any progress on Sudan as the issue went unmentioned in the State Department’s recently released statement on outcomes from the dialogue.

Last fall, during President Barack Obama’s trip to China, I wrote on the close relations between Khartoum and Beijingand how the U.S. should appeal to Chinese national interests on the issue:

From the outside, it sure looks like [Premier] Hu has a convenient excuse not to take any dramatic steps to challenge Khartoum’s deadly policies in Darfur, failure to implement the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, and enact true political reforms. Yet, this is the very reason why Save Darfur has urged President Obama not only to use moral suasion with the Chinese but appeal directly to their own national interests: keeping oil freely flowing (something impossible, for example, if war erupts again between the North and South).  This type of realist case for tying incentives for the NCP directly to sustainable peace in Sudan has the real potential to influence even Khartoum’s closest supporters…

More recent reports include a story at The Wall Street Journal that points out that Sudan is a key part of China National Petroleum’s $60 billion international push aimed at increasing its overseas oil production. The article states:

China National Petroleum has been selling assets to PetroChina that aren’t already part of the listed unit, but it keeps assets in politically sensitive countries like Iran and Sudan out of PetroChina to avoid backlash from international shareholders.

For those interested, Global Witness has produced very valuable reports on the need for transparency in Sudan’s oil industry to avoid a return to conflict between the North and the South. The organization, furthermore, urges China to use its significant influence in Sudan to implement key recommendations from the report.

On another issue, dealing with Sudan’s enormous external debt is an area where the U.S. and China could have the opportunity to work together. China currently serves as Sudan’s most significant creditor. The Sudanese government, in fact, has used Chinese loans to expand significantly the oil economy over the last decade, as well as finance its wars in South Sudan and Darfur. And in 2007 on a trip to Khartoum, President Hu Jintao “cheerily waved away $80 million in debt.”

In a paper last December, I explained how the United States could work with the international community to use Sudan’s debt burden as a leverage point for peace:

If the Sudanese government demonstrably changes its behavior to the equitable benefit of its people, the United States should be prepared to lead the way in facilitating a debt-relief package for Sudan with the international community. On the other hand, if the Sudanese government fails to match its rhetoric for peace with proven action, then the United States should make it clear to Sudan that it will use its role at the IMF and World Bank, as well as its position in the Paris Club, to block any potential debt-relief package. The American message should be simple: the international community will not help Sudan with its economic crisis unless the Sudanese regime takes proven and substantive steps to resolve Darfur, implement the CPA, and enact true reform to the benefit of its citizens.

Last week, the Sudanese government made clear once again that obtaining debt-relief is a major policy priority. On Friday, the Sudanese government announced that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) finally agreed to start talkson relieving Sudan’s debt.  The Minister for Finance and National Economy Lual Deng described this approval as “serious movement” and a “promising start.”

Nothing can be gleaned yet from the conversations in Beijing over the last two days about Sudan from either U.S. or Chinese officials. Hopefully, this silence means that both sides are working aggressively to build a common strategy that is not at this time ready for public consumption. It would be troubling though if the silence pointed instead to ignoring the importance of a united front toward Sudan or, even worse, to disagreements on how to approach the critical challenges ahead.

It’s not just Sudan…more on China in Africa: The New York Times highlights political implications of a Chinese scholarship program for Namibia’s elite; China and Senegal hope to enhance military cooperation; and at the Globalist, two authors convincingly argue that “China is currently pursuing oil resources in unstable countries without regard for the political risk entailed. While that might play well in the short- to medium-term, it could cost China dearly down the line.”

It’s not just China increasing influence in Africa: Saudi Arabia held the first meeting of the Saudi-East Africa Forum in Addis Ababa this week. Representatives from seven East African countries attended: Ethiopia, Djibouti, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Uganda and Rwanda.  A Saudi minister stated, “Saudi Arabia is committed to combating hunger, to provide support for the host country but also to generate exports. We are not to impose our needs above the needs of local population.” Sudan did not participate in the forum; however, the Saudi Development Fund announced this week that it was donating 15 million dollars for development and rehabilitation in Darfur.  The money will go to the “model villages” that the Arab League has pushed as an effort to help IDPs in Darfur return to normal lives.

Whither Yemen? Thats the title of a good blog summarizing the current challenges facing Yemen’s leadership.  It concludes that “the period ahead for Yemen is likely to be, to paraphrase Hobbes, ‘nasty and brutish.’” Another blog challenges the notion that Saudi Arabia’s recent intervention in Yemen’s conflict with the Houthi rebels could be good for the US because it will lead to the further militarization of the Gulf and a strong Sunni and Gulf alliance against Iranian encroachment throughout the Arab world. Ian Bremmer at Foreign Policy tends to agree that greater militarization and more proxy wars are usually not constructive anywhere and argues that a failed state next to the world’s largest oil exporter is reason enough for Americans to care about the conflict.

Updates on Ethiopia, Somalia, and Egypt: The Sahel Blog tries to get a handle on what’s happening in the Ogaden region of Ethiopia and how it relates to the never-ending conflict in Somalia.  Meanwhile, the War and Peace blog reflects on the significance of the killing of a Somali judge, who “devoted his life not only to the rule of law but to the pursuit of justice according to the sometimes conflicting state, Islamic, and Somali customary law systems in an incredibly volatile political environment.”  And finally a former professor of mine, Jon Alterman, explains how “Gamal Mubarak has cast himself as an executive and not a dictator” and made the necessary connections with the security and intelligence bosses to secure power once Hosni hands him the reins of Egypt.

Sarah Palin versus the White House on Settlement Expansion: The White House stood up forcefully this week to further settlement expansions in the West Bank, while Sarah Palin ringingly and shockingly endorsed Israelis rights to build as many settlements as they wish anywhere (!) because – in her unbelievable words – “more and more Jewish people will be flocking to Israel in the days and weeks and months ahead.”

Other Tidbits: Rob Crilly quickly notes steep decline of Darfur coverage and asks, “How do we keep people interested in just another African disaster?”  From an organization concerned about those displaced in Darfur and other conflicts, Refugees International is taking the lead on “climate displacement” but tells us that “under international refugee law there can be no “climate refugees.” Therefore, they call for negotiation of “the international legal ramifications of the various scenarios” at the upcoming Copenhagen talks in December.

First, The Sudan Tribune has a bit more from Zhou Yongkang, the Chinese security chief, who led the delegation to Sudan this week and about whom I blogged yesterday. After his meeting with Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, he showered the man wanted on seven charges at the International Criminal Court with the following praise:

“As an old friend of the Sudanese president, I got a full sense of the profound changes that have taken place in Sudan under your leadership as soon as I stepped on Sudanese soil…This morning I visited the Khartoum Oil Refinery. Ten years ago it was a mere construction site. Today it is covered with one modern plant after another.”

Second, two leading Sudanese papers (Al-Rai Al-Aam and Al-Sahafa) this morning lead with stories about the aftermath of the Egypt-Algeria match on Wednesday.  Stating that President Hosni Mubarak thanked Bashir for the efforts of the Sudanese security, the articles try to put to rest rumors of new tensions between the Egyptians and Sudanese.  The articles also claim that at least 10 Algerian fans are being held in Khartoum and will face charges in Sudanese courts for their assaults on Egyptian fans after the game.

Many Sudanese are upset with the way in which the Egyptian media attacked the Sudanese for their inability to maintain order.  They feel like its yet another demonstration of the colonial mindset of the Egyptians – too many of whom, they claims, still revel in the nostalgia of the Anglo-Egyptian Condominium from 1899-1955. For an Egyptian perspective of what happened in Khartoum though, check out this article in Al-Ahram Weekly, as well as Dina Ezzat in the same issue who “laments the senseless Egyptian-Algerian furore.”

Zhou Yongkang of the Communist Party of China andSudanese Vice President Ali Osman Tah meet in Khartoum

First posted at Save Darfur…

To close the week, more information on the China/Sudan deal reported first in the Sudanese press and covered here on Wednesday and breaking in the English-language press today.

John Garnaut at The Sydney Morning Herald details the power of security chief Zhou Yongkang who led the Chinese delegation to Sudan.  Garnaut describes the contingent from Beijing as “almost as impressive as Obama’s” and writes:

Zhou could not have made his visit to Sudan without the party leadership considering how it might affect the Obama-Hu Jintao spectacle in Beijing. Ostensibly, however, he and Bashir were simply getting down to business. They unveiled the first Khartoum-Beijing direct flights, opened a Confucius Institute, signed an agriculture agreement and agreed to jointly pump yet more oil.

The article also gives more of the back-story on China’s investments in Sudan:

Back in 1995 Zhou Yongkang was working his way to the top of China’s biggest oil company, Petrochina. He had close connections with another oil industry veteran, Zeng Qinghong, who happened to be a powerbroker for the then president, Jiang Zemin. Zhou and Zeng were the drivers and Jiang was the decision maker behind China’s hugely controversial decision to exploit Sudan’s oil reserves at a time when Western companies could not afford the political or reputation risk, according to several Chinese oil industry and foreign policy sources…This week, Zhou gave a modest account of that personal history.

”Fourteen years ago, then Chinese president Jiang Zemin and you made the strategic decision to start China-Sudan oil co-operation, and our bilateral pragmatic co-operation has since entered a stage of fast development,” Zhou recounted to Bashir, on the delayed CCTV report. Bashir was quick to give Zhou some personal glory.

“You are the important promoter of the Sudan-China oil project, the Sudanese people have special affection towards you,” said Bashir. “Sudan-China oil co-operation not only brought Sudan oil but also peace.”

What is even more troubling than the airtight relationship between China and Omar al-Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP) is the power of the Oil Gang in China – led by Zhou. According to Garnaut, this group has “obstructed efforts by President Hu and others to support international sanctions against Sudan.”

From the outside, it sure looks like Hu has a convenient excuse not to  take any dramatic steps to challenge Khartoum’s deadly policies in Darfur, failure to implement the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, and enact true political reforms. Yet, this is the very reason why Save Darfur has urged President Obama not only to use moral suasion with the Chinese but appeal directly to their own national interests: keeping oil freely flowing (something impossible, for example, if war erupts again between the North and South).  This type of realist case for tying incentives for the NCP directly to sustainable peace in Sudan has the real potential to influence even Khartoum’s closest supporters like Mr. Zhou.

Zhou Yongkang of the Communist Party of China and Sudanese Vice President Ali Osman Taha

First posted at Save Darfur…

While President Barack Obama was meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao yesterday in Beijing, top Sudanese government officials were inking a new deal with a visiting Chinese delegation in Khartoum.  Not yet covered by the English-language press, Al-Rai Al-Aam(an Arabic-language Sudanese newspaper that leans heavily to Omar al-Bashir’s National Congress Party) ran a leading story this morning with the headline: “The government welcomes China’s plan for joint cooperation.”

The series of agreements brokered between the two governments comes two days after the announcement of the first non-stop flight between Beijing and Khartoum. The multi-layered package of support will focus cooperation in four fields: energy, infrastructure, agriculture and food, and training and capacity building.  There was also a commitment to develop stronger national ties by opening cultural centers and connecting universities.

Of probably greatest importance, China pledged to work with Sudan to double its oil production and continue to finance large-scale development projects.  To those ends, the two parties signed two loans worth a collective $46 million and a grant of $11 million.

Xinhua reports that senior Communist Party of China (CPC) officials hailed their country’s relations with Sudan in their public comments.  Zhou Yongkang of the CPC said that he was “pleased to see that Sudan has become one of the fast growing economies in Africa and has improved its people’s standards of living while advancing national reconciliation.”

He also stated that:

Sudan has become China’s third largest trade partner in Africa…China is Sudan’s largest trade partner…Zhou said 2009, which also marks the 10th anniversary of an oil cooperation project between the two countries, is an important year in the history of the Chinese-Sudanese friendship.

In order to enhance the bilateral relationship, China and Sudan should promote political mutual trust, deepen their economic and trade cooperation and expand their exchanges.

With this visit, the Chinese delegation has unabashedly affirmed China’s long-term support of the Sudanese government. The fact that this deal was struck while Obama was in China makes the presidential silence on Sudan – that Jerry addressed this morning – so much more glaring.