Brains Like a Shoe

The Carter Center and European Union today issued preliminary reports on the Sudanese elections.  Both found that the elections failed to meet international standards.  Here is an excerpt from the Carter Center report:

While it is too early to offer a final overall assessment, it is apparent that the elections will fall short of meeting international standards and Sudan’s obligations for genuine elections in many respects. Nonetheless, the elections are important as a key benchmark in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and because of the increased political and civic participation that has occurred over the last several months. Ultimately, the success of the elections will depend on whether Sudanese leaders take action to promote lasting democratic transformation.

I focused on this final sentence in a Huffington Post piece yesterday.

What Path Next for the Sudanese Regime?

On a recent pre-election trip to Sudan, a knowledgeable analyst told me that President Omar Al Bashir’s ruling National Congress Party (NCP) is not a monolith but a broad church. Like other aging autocratic regimes, the NCP has largely exhausted its ideological fervor. Rather than incessantly extolling the virtues of an Islamic state as in the first years of the 1989 coup, most energy is now focused on devising the best ways to remain in power. The multiplicity of spokespeople – some moderates and some hardliners – within the party actually serves it quite well, as it is able to project different and oftentimes conflicting narratives to serve its core overriding objectives.

Statements on the closing days of Sudan’s first multiparty elections in 24 years offer an insight into differences within the NCP on the best ways to handle public messaging. They also forecast that the “good cop, bad cop routine” specialized by the regime over the last two decades is likely to continue.

(Read the rest here)

The Africa News Blog at Reuters has similar analysis: “One step forward. How many back?”

My colleagues and I at the Save Darfur Coalition will be writing more in the coming days. You can see our daily coverage of the elections thus far here.

Elections in Sudan (1986)

First posted at Save Darfur…

My colleague Alex Meixner and I have recently written on the importance of the national elections in Sudan scheduled for April 2010 (here and here).

Going forward, the Save Darfur policy team will be writing periodic updates on the preparations for the elections, the political climate for free and fair elections, and how the elections are being used by various actors in Sudan to support their own agendas – especially Omar al-Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP).

Reuters sounded an alarm yesterday with the headline, “Millions Could Miss Sudan Elections – Observers.” The story cited the Carter Center’s statement that their observation teams working in Sudan:

expressed concern that while turnout has been high in certain states, participation has been uneven and many states appear to lag behind in meeting registration targets.  In light of these challenges, the Center also urged the NEC [National Election Commission] and Sudan’s state elections committees to make available additional funds for the registration process; redouble efforts to ensure that registration books and materials reach as many eligible Sudanese as possible, especially in areas with difficult logistical and security challenges; and expand civic education on voter registration.

The Center also urged the NEC and state elections committees to “take action to ensure timely accreditation for both national and international observers so that they can observe the entire electoral process, both during and after vote.”

Perhaps more disturbingly, the Center also warned of the Sudanese government’s efforts to intimidate voters in Darfur. The Sudan Tribune writes that the Center:

detailed specific instances of concern, such as the presence of agents of the National Intelligence and Security Service at registration centers in Darfur. The [Carter] statement noted that “NISS is not an agency perceived neutrally by a substantial proportion of the population. Through their mere presence at centers, NISS agents may serve to intimidate some citizens from registering.”

This statement comes four days after the U.S. Special Envoy for Sudan, Scott Gration, returned from Sudan andasserted his own concerns “about the chances for conducting credible elections and referenda.” Rather than identifying any of the problems highlighted by the Carter Center and others, Gration’s statement merely urged:

Sudanese citizens [to] take advantage of the recently announced one-week extension to register to vote, as it is the only way for the Sudanese people to maintain their right to participate in the national elections in April 2010.

So where do things stand today?  The elections (delayed six more days by the NEC last week) are scheduled to begin on April 11.  Who will participate remains to be seen.  Two days ago, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the northern opposition parties stated that their leaders would wait until December 12 to decide on their participation.  Since the signing of the Juba Declaration in September, they have set out the following conditions for their participation:

• The upholding of basic freedoms as stipulated in the Basic Human Rights Charter which has been incorporated in Interim National Constitution of 2005; and
• The amendment of all laws related to freedoms and democratic transformation and bringing them in consonance with the INC, namely the National Security Law, Criminal Procedures Law, Trade Unions Law, Immunities Law, Personal Status Law, Press and Publications Law, Public Order Laws.

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