A blog about the politics and conflicts of the Horn of Africa and the Middle East, and the role of the United States in facilitating peacemaking, state-building and economic development in the region.
George Packer in The New Yorker has a short, but punchy, analysis of the “rights and wrongs” of the first year of Obama’s international engagement of both friends and enemies. As an ardent supporter from the beginning of this strategy, I think it’s important that we constantly assess its strengths and weaknesses. Packer discusses the early reluctance of the administration to risk rebuilding strained relationships abroad by prioritizing democracy or human rights. He credits Obama though for consistently offering a vision of hope in his speeches to citizens living in oppressive conditions, as well as with some innovative initiatives sponsored by the administration to give concrete outlets for uplift.
Ultimately, he concludes:
Obama is coming up against the limitations of engagement. What if people around the world want more than a humble adjustment in America’s tone and behavior? What if American overtures to nasty regimes fail, because those regimes have a different view of their own survival? Then the President will have to devise a fallback strategy—preferably one that answers the desires of the people who applauded in Cairo, and doesn’t leave another generation cynical about American promises.
It’s my hope that in analyzing U.S. policy toward Sudan over the last few months that I have appropriately framed the challenges facing the administration. Engagement, even with the likes of the Bashir regime, is the preferred strategy – but it must have limits. Silently acquiescing fully to political violence and oppression not only protects those in power from the range of influences of American foreign policy and that of our allies, it also undercuts the courageous efforts of reformers within these countries who are daily fighting for change.
This scoop came from Safwat El-Sherif, the Secretary General of Hosni Mubarak’s National Democratic Party and the Chairman of the Egyptian Shura Council. El-Sherif made these comments to a delegation of visiting Sudanese journalists in Cairo. He also stressed that Egypt views Sudan as its “strategic depth” and, as such, the country will spare no efforts to keep Sudan unified, strong, safe and secure.
What does this mean concerning Egypt’s response to a vote for southern secession in 2011? Well, probably not much, since first El-Sherif does not really make foreign policy and second Egypt has been sending mixed signals for months. At times, officials have said they would support southern independence and at other times they have hedged on such support. The debate about what to do in Cairo is likely still ongoing, given its importance to Egyptian national security.
However, El-Sherif’s interesting justification for a unified Sudan was only matched by his description of the wall that Egypt is building on its border with Gaza and his explanation of the current press freedoms in Egypt.
On unity: A generation was brought up on a love for Sudan and the unity of the Nile Valley. Such a generation believes in the unity of the Nile Valley and went out into the streets for it.
In fact, Sudanese chose independence in 1956. Sudanese leaders have often criticized Egypt’s intrusive foreign policy that seems to forget often this historical and political reality.
On Palestine: There is no wall of steel, but actions of the armed forces to protect Egypt’s national security…We are free to choose the way we protect our national security.
In fact, the wall is made of super-strength steel says the BBC and Egypt has been complicit with Israel in the humanitarian blockade of Gaza.
On Freedoms: Egypt is experiencing unprecedented levels of freedom of opinion and expression, and it has allowed freedoms unprecedented in other Arab countries.
First, The Sudan Tribune has a bit more from Zhou Yongkang, the Chinese security chief, who led the delegation to Sudan this week and about whom I blogged yesterday. After his meeting with Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, he showered the man wanted on seven charges at the International Criminal Court with the following praise:
“As an old friend of the Sudanese president, I got a full sense of the profound changes that have taken place in Sudan under your leadership as soon as I stepped on Sudanese soil…This morning I visited the Khartoum Oil Refinery. Ten years ago it was a mere construction site. Today it is covered with one modern plant after another.”
Second, two leading Sudanese papers (Al-Rai Al-Aam and Al-Sahafa) this morning lead with stories about the aftermath of the Egypt-Algeria match on Wednesday. Stating that President Hosni Mubarak thanked Bashir for the efforts of the Sudanese security, the articles try to put to rest rumors of new tensions between the Egyptians and Sudanese. The articles also claim that at least 10 Algerian fans are being held in Khartoum and will face charges in Sudanese courts for their assaults on Egyptian fans after the game.
Soccer is more than just a sport for Egyptians. A recent victory in a do-or-die match against Algeria has captivated the entire nation, as well as Western observers. The LA Times blog Babylon and Beyond describes how Egypt “wishes for soccer glory as compensation to tough living.” The blog quotes sociologist Sayed Eweis, who explains soccer “is something that makes [Egyptians] happy.” Writing in The Guardian, Mohamed El Dahshan elaborates that soccer “acts as a catharsis for political frustration and a proxy for popular participation” in Egypt.
I also forgot to mention yesterday that Egypt’s win on Saturday forced a “sudden death” World Cup qualifying match that will be held tomorrow in, of all places, Khartoum. A blogger at The New York Times highlights the irony:
In Sudan, there is a love-hate relationship with Egypt, and there will be a huge number of Algerian supporters on hand Wednesday for the World Cup playoff game between the Pharaohs and the Desert Foxes. You have to wonder why Egypt chose this country to host the game, with a place in South Africa on the line.
The Sudanese papers this morning covered the extensive security arrangements being made and reported on the scores of planes being chartered from both Algiers and Cairo. The Telegraph reports:
“We expect 48 aircraft from Algeria and 18 from Egypt,” said Khartoum state governor Abdelrahman al-Khidr, noting about 2,000 Egyptians were also expected to take buses, while thousands already lived and worked in Khartoum.
For tomorrow though, lets put politics aside for 90 minutes, hope for a great game (meaning an Egyptian victory), and of course a day free of violence. Yalla Masr!
Having lived in Cairo and watched intense national rivalry games on small television sets at dusty coffee shops in dark alleys surrounded by over-caffeinated and over-zealous young men, I can picture perfectly the scene Hannah Allam describes:
Fireworks are exploding, police sirens are blaring, horns are honking, music is thumping and at least six processions of young men with drums have passed noisily in front of my building. Sporadic gunfire is keeping the whole block’s residents in from their balconies.
Tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of Egyptians are flooding the streets draped in the red, white and black of the national flag and generally whooping it up. They have reason to celebrate: the Egyptian national soccer team beat archrival Algeria tonight in a World Cup qualifier. The two teams will play again Wednesday in Sudan.
“This is what a revolution could look like,” an Egyptian friend observed, wistfully, of the fervor in the streets.
With a completely calcified political scene, football serves as one of the only outlets for national pride and competitive domestic politics in Egypt. Elections for the position of president of the two main Cairo clubs - Al-Ahly and Zamalek – are more hotly contested than any government position in the country.
Imagine what the pent up frustration of millions of young Egyptians could do if focused on a political target? Perhaps Gamal Mubarak? Could this happen if Hosni suddenly passes away or, if before that, he unconstitutionally attempts to hand over power to his son? Given the police state that is modern-day Egypt, this revolution en masse may never take place. But no one knows for sure until the fortitude of the carefully calibrated system of repression is truly tested.
Creating this blog gave me the opportunity to add مخ زي جزمة - "mokh zay gazma" - to the internet archives. A google search demonstrates that no one has transliterated this Egyptian Colloquial Arabic expression into English in the same way that I have. The term literally means "brains like a shoe" and in Egypt it is a derogatory term used to describe someone who is extremely stubborn. The role of intransigence and the dearth of creativity for new solutions should be clear to all those who track developments in the Horn of Africa and the Middle East. This blog intends to comment regularly on these politics and the role of an often sadly, stale America foreign policy in supporting peacekmaking, state-building, and economic development in these closely linked volatile regions.
