Brains Like a Shoe

“I don’t know when is the last time that humanity created something that is going to live on for years to come.” - Nakheel advertisement

It was almost a full year ago that I heard these words in the state-of-the-art visitor’s center of Nakheel, the real-estate subsidiary of Dubai World. The unfinished development projects of Nakheel in Dubai – like The Palm and The Globe – now have investors around the world fearing another massive jolt to the international financial system. From what I have read, even if Dubai World were to fold completely, the actual effect on global markets would pale in comparison to the collapse of Lehman Brothers – which ushered the world dramatically into our ongoing Great Recession. See this chart to compare the relative sizes of the companies.

Nevertheless, I think that the expansive coverage of Dubai World’s woes is appropriate. It serves as another important chapter in the rise and fall of the over-hyped myths of the commanding heights of global finance. In addition to writing down in my notes the highly entertaining quote  above, the only other thing that I wrote during the video was: “This is a bet on on global capitalism!!!” Indeed, the development project of Dubai was quite simple: complete integration with the ever-churning engines of international commerce, finance, and tourism – greased, of course, with the oil and natural gas revenues of neighboring Abu Dhabi. What could possibly go wrong?

As Jan Randolph, head of the sovereign risk group at IHS Global Insight, noted, Dubai’s rags to riches, and possibly back to rags, tale “has all the elements of a Greek tragedy.” And these pictures taken this past year visualize for us this roller-coaster story. Luckily for Dubai though, global capitalism will most likely bounce back in the next few years which will once again attract investors, tourists, and globe-setters back to its prodigious condos, malls, and man-made islands. On its rebound, perhaps Dubai will act with a bit more humility and forgo boasts, such as ”We are now building and shaping the vision of a modern world.”

With this said, I hope that Dubai and the Emirates as a whole do not completely abandon their dreams. Located in a region where violence, repression, and destruction dominate the daily realities of so many, the success stories coming out of the Gulf states - if you could put aside the legitimate concerns over labor and human rights for a second – were unique over the last few decades. In many ways the ambitious state-building and relatively liberal environments did inspire many people in the region. In addition to the often mistreated laborers (who also are bearing the brunt of the collapse), middle class Arab professionals – lawyers, accountants, journalists, and engineers – have flocked to the U.A.E., Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar and built quite successful careers and enjoyable lives there.  As propagandistic as it might sound, there is a shred of truth in the quote of an employee in the video: ”Nakheel is a company that allows you to dream and it empowers us to make those dreams a reality…We are building a country.”

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Mr. Zaidi dodges like Mr. Bush

Given the title of the blog, I thought it was appropriate to highlight  a shoe-throwing incident that took place today in Paris but involving Iraq. This time, the most famous shoe-thrower in the history of the world dodged a screaming projectile-shoe hurled at him by a fellow Iraqi journalist:

An Iraqi reporter imprisoned for throwing his shoes at President George W. Bush found himself on the receiving end of a similar footwear attack in Paris Tuesday.

Muntazer al-Zaidi, whose flare-up against Bush last December turned into a symbol of Iraqi anger, was speaking at a news conference to promote his campaign for victims of the war in Iraq when a man in the audience hurled a shoe at him.

It hit the wall next to his head and a scuffle ensued in the audience, television footage showed.

French media said the attacker was an exiled Iraqi journalist who spoke in defense of U.S. policy, accusing Zaidi of siding with a dictatorship, before throwing his shoe.

Zaidi’s own outburst summed up the feelings of many Iraqis about the U.S. military invasion of their country and the ensuing bloodshed and sectarian killing.

Millions of people around the world saw images of him shouting “this is a goodbye kiss from the Iraqi people, dog,” during a news conference by the former U.S. leader, before throwing his shoes at him.

Zaidi, a television reporter, was sentenced to three years’ imprisonment for assaulting a head of state. This was later reduced to one year and he was released in September.

He has alleged that he was tortured by guards after his arrest.

This article also reminds me that I need to think of creative ways to celebrate the anniversary – December 15, 2008 – of Mr. Zaidi’s throw at our ignominious former president. Ideas are welcomed!

Elections in Sudan (1986)

First posted at Save Darfur…

My colleague Alex Meixner and I have recently written on the importance of the national elections in Sudan scheduled for April 2010 (here and here).

Going forward, the Save Darfur policy team will be writing periodic updates on the preparations for the elections, the political climate for free and fair elections, and how the elections are being used by various actors in Sudan to support their own agendas – especially Omar al-Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP).

Reuters sounded an alarm yesterday with the headline, “Millions Could Miss Sudan Elections – Observers.” The story cited the Carter Center’s statement that their observation teams working in Sudan:

expressed concern that while turnout has been high in certain states, participation has been uneven and many states appear to lag behind in meeting registration targets.  In light of these challenges, the Center also urged the NEC [National Election Commission] and Sudan’s state elections committees to make available additional funds for the registration process; redouble efforts to ensure that registration books and materials reach as many eligible Sudanese as possible, especially in areas with difficult logistical and security challenges; and expand civic education on voter registration.

The Center also urged the NEC and state elections committees to “take action to ensure timely accreditation for both national and international observers so that they can observe the entire electoral process, both during and after vote.”

Perhaps more disturbingly, the Center also warned of the Sudanese government’s efforts to intimidate voters in Darfur. The Sudan Tribune writes that the Center:

detailed specific instances of concern, such as the presence of agents of the National Intelligence and Security Service at registration centers in Darfur. The [Carter] statement noted that “NISS is not an agency perceived neutrally by a substantial proportion of the population. Through their mere presence at centers, NISS agents may serve to intimidate some citizens from registering.”

This statement comes four days after the U.S. Special Envoy for Sudan, Scott Gration, returned from Sudan andasserted his own concerns “about the chances for conducting credible elections and referenda.” Rather than identifying any of the problems highlighted by the Carter Center and others, Gration’s statement merely urged:

Sudanese citizens [to] take advantage of the recently announced one-week extension to register to vote, as it is the only way for the Sudanese people to maintain their right to participate in the national elections in April 2010.

So where do things stand today?  The elections (delayed six more days by the NEC last week) are scheduled to begin on April 11.  Who will participate remains to be seen.  Two days ago, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the northern opposition parties stated that their leaders would wait until December 12 to decide on their participation.  Since the signing of the Juba Declaration in September, they have set out the following conditions for their participation:

• The upholding of basic freedoms as stipulated in the Basic Human Rights Charter which has been incorporated in Interim National Constitution of 2005; and
• The amendment of all laws related to freedoms and democratic transformation and bringing them in consonance with the INC, namely the National Security Law, Criminal Procedures Law, Trade Unions Law, Immunities Law, Personal Status Law, Press and Publications Law, Public Order Laws.

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