Dec
22

Reaction to “Darfuristan”

Sean Brooks Sudan Add your comment

Bec Hamilton invited me to react to Ben Wallace-Wells’ essay, “Darfuristan,” in the current issue of Rolling Stone. You can read the full post on her great blog, “The Promise of Engagement.”

Here is the meat of it…

My issue with this essay though, and other less well-researched criticisms of the advocacy movement (see Mahmood Mamdani’s diatribes), is that it captures the fluidity and complexity of international politics and American activism to the gross neglect of important shifts and dynamics in Sudanese politics. The essay goes half-way by discussing the highly politicized nature of the IDP camps in Darfur today. By reading the complete essay though, one would think that Bashir and his National Congress Party (NCP) have successfully rebuffed all international pressures and that they have once again securely protected their monopolization of power and wealth in the country.

But as those who follow Sudanese politics closely know, Khartoum is not the same Khartoum today. The regime has its back against the wall and is fighting for survival in a self-destructive way unseen in its twenty years of dominance. Such an analysis is at the heart of the International Crisis Group recent paper entitled, “Sudan: Preventing an Implosion.”

Consistent international condemnation and isolation of the Bashir regime’s egregious actions in Darfur, South Sudan, and even in Khartoum and other areas of North Sudan, have opened the door for Sudanese actors committed to human rights and a more democratic and liberal form of governance to speak out and challenge the regime. The recent demonstrations of the Juba forces and the emergence of grassroots groups like Girifna are the two most obvious examples.  Reported cracks within the NCP regarding the future of the party and the state also reveal that all may not be well within the ruling cabal. The elections scheduled for April 2010 could put to the test all of these changing dynamics, especially if the opposition and civil society continue to work together to demand greater freedoms and civil rights. The international community and activists should not take sides in these elections, but they should continue to demand greater political space to allow Sudanese politics to take place without resorting to violence and repression.

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Dec
21

Time to Take Away Sudan’s Credit Card

Sean Brooks Sudan Add your comment

Check out my new article at Foreign Policy on Sudan’s continuing drive to secure debt relief and how the United States and international community should use debt relief as both an incentive and pressure for peace:

Time to Take Away Sudan’s Credit Card

Sudanese officials are heading to Washington in search of a bailout. But the Obama administration should condition its support on an improvement in the country’s dismal human rights record.

Omar al-Bashir’s brutal Sudanese regime certainly has nerve. On Dec. 14, as Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP) thugs violently suppressed the second peaceful demonstration by opposition groups in seven days, the Sudanese minister of finance met with the U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan Scott Gration and urged the United States to lift sanctions on Khartoum and cancel Sudan’s foreign debt — in other words, bailing out the government that brought you such atrocities as Darfur and the decades-long civil war with South Sudan that now ominously threatens to reignite.

While no Western country is rushing to hand out money to Bashir, the international community has disagreed over how to persuade Sudan to end its genocidal ways, and the United States is still the only country to impose sanctions. One unlooked-for upside of the global financial crisis may be that it offers new economic leverage with Khartoum. Following the crash, Sudan now holds roughly $36 billion in external sovereign debt that it is struggling to repay. This debt gives the rest of the world a new opportunity to finally affect the course of Sudanese political reform and even end the conflicts in Darfur and South Sudan, if Western countries are willing to act boldly (Read the rest here).

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Dec
18

Carter Center’s Wake-Up Call on Elections in Sudan

Sean Brooks Sudan 1 comment
Sudanese women registering to vote

Sudanese women registering to vote

First posted at Save Darfur…

A new report by the Carter Center on Sudan’s elections expresses grave concerns about recent security crackdowns. The report should serve as an urgent wake-up call for the international community that the necessary conditions for free and fair elections currently do not exist in Sudan. Instead, the lack of political freedoms and the gross registration violations, especially in Darfur, shed clear light on the ruling National Congress Party’s intentions for these elections: a fraudulent process designed to legitimize its undemocratic, repressive and genocidal rule.

Jerry Fowler, Save Darfur’s president, stated in a press release today:

The Carter Center’s report came as no surprise. Sudanese civil society and opposition leaders for the last two weeks have been speaking out loudly about the gross human rights and elections violations of a repressive regime. By and large, the international community has remained quiet while these activists and opposition leaders have been threatened, harassed, and beaten throughout Sudan. The situation, as the Carter Center report acknowledges, is even more severe in Darfur. The heavy military and intelligence presence at the registration sites and the lack of even the basic freedoms make it impossible for the people of Darfur to participate in a credible elections process.

Given the alarming nature of the Carter Center’s report, Save Darfur has urged the U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan, General Scott Gration, to work with his international counterparts and demand answers from the Sudanese government on the following issues:

Lack of Basic Freedoms. Several recent incidents – such as the crackdown on protesters in Khartoum and the beating and detentions of journalists – have clearly demonstrated the lack of political rights and freedoms in Sudan necessary for free and fair elections.

The Carter Center reported:

  • [T]he Center…expressed serious concerns about incidents that undermine political rights and fundamental freedoms in Sudan, including: arrests, detention and harassment of civil society and political party members for constitutional and peaceful activity in Khartoum and other cities by security services, and attacks on the National Congress Party (NCP) premises in Wau and Rumbek.

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Dec
17

Spinning a bit of good news with the bad stuff

Sean Brooks What I am reading 2 comments
I am unusually struck by the lack of good news in the Horn of Africa and the Middle East. So before I list the stories on human rights violations, civil conflict, and war that grabbed my attention, lets begin with two stories that could – if spun skillfully – seem like positive developments.

First, Mike Smith at Dipnote (the State Department’s blog) discusses how peacekeeping offers new opportunities for U.S.-China relations. In the long-run, greater Chinese involvement in UN peacekeeping seems like it could help fill critical capacity gaps – and if China would do this in coordination with the United States so much the better. With such a bright horizon, we will therefore today focus on China’s commitment of engineers to the UN/African Union hybrid peacekeeping mission in Darfur (UNAMID) – and not its diplomatic and military support of the Khartoum regime.

As for the other encouraging item, Claudio Guler for ISN Security Watch argues that “a spate of recent international judicial actions is nipping at heels of the some of the world’s most powerful states and suggesting that although a culture of impunity persists, getting off scot-free is little by little on the wan.” This article helps confront the recent rhetoric by some governments and academics that the International Criminal Court (ICC) and other mechanisms of international justice are new tools of western imperialism. The ICC prosecutor’s interest in crimes committed in Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as the recent Goldstone report help undermine this claim. I would also add the British court’s surprise arrest warrant for Israeli former foreign minister Tzipi Livni to the list.

But now to the news that is difficult to put in a positive light.

Three recent articles on Eritrea reveal “a lonely nation under a glass.”  For the Washington Post, Stephanie McCrummen writes two compelling pieces this week about life in Eritrea and the political strategy of the regime to insulate itself and defy the world. The BBC then highlights the disappearance of the entire Eritrean soccer team in Kenya. This is the young men’s third attempt to flee their country.

News on Monday that airstrikes killed at least 35 civilians in Northwestern Yemen. It is strongly suspected that the Saudis were responsible – which “could amplify anger against the Saudis among Yemeni tribes” and escalate the conflict. What’s worse, the Houthi rebels in the North have blamed the United States for the attack. Waq-al-Waq does not believe American officials though would act so foolishly. And what’s even worse than that, the BBC reports that Somali refugees in Yemen have been forced at gunpoint to join the civil war.

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Dec
15

Déjà vu in Sudan: another crackdown on protesters

Sean Brooks Sudan 2 comments
Protestors yesterday in Khartoum, courtsey of Girfina

Protesters yesterday in Khartoum, courtesy of Girifna

First posted at Save Darfur…

It was déjà vu yesterday in Khartoum, when on the second Monday in a row the police and security agencies loyal to Omar al-Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP) forcibly shut down a peaceful demonstration organized by the Juba group (those political parties that signed the Juba Declaration in September) . The student group Girifna has a gallery of photos from the scuttled demonstration. This time NCP officials tried vigorously to split the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) from the network of political parties calling for reforms to the national security laws, peace in Darfur, and free and fair elections in April 2010.

On Sunday, the SPLM and NCP announced a breakthrough in their negotiations over the 2011 referendum, the status of the Abyei area, and the popular consultations promised to the people of the Blue Nile and South Kordofan. So on Monday NCP officials said that the SPLM had also agreed to suspend the protests warning that any move to the contrary would nullify the recent breakthrough. SPLM leaders though denied these reports, with Yasir Arman, the deputy secretary general of the SPLM, stating: “any attempts to drive a wedge between the SPLM and the Juba forces will not succeed.”

Instead, some SPLM officials participated in the demonstration and afterwards they and other participants strongly condemned the use of tear gas to disperse the gathered crowds. In addition, Pagan Amum, the secretary general of the SPLM, accused (in Arabic) the NCP of paying people to suppress the demonstration.

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Dec
11

Somalia’s dismemberment and possible patchwork rebuilding

Sean Brooks Somalia Add your comment

Yesterday, I highlighted the recommendations of Somali experts – notably Bronwyn E. Bruton and Ken Menkhaus – for how the United States should contribute to counter-terrorism, conflict resolution, humanitarian relief, economic development and state-building in Somalia.  Their pragmatic and cautious approaches argue against knee-jerk American responses to the real or perceived threats posed by al-Qaeda, the al-Shabab, and piracy.

Last spring at SAIS, I put together an extensive backgrounder on Somalia. The paper traces the  history of state formation in Somalia from the colonial period to the collapse of the state and its current crises. At the end, I provide a brief analysis of the current challenges to peace-making and state-building placed in their historical context – something missing from much of the current writings on Somalia. I must confess that much of my understanding of Somalia has been influenced by Menkhaus, my former advisor.  In reading Bruton great piece in Foreign Affairs, I also found that her recommendations closely match the findings that I developed. So if you are interested, enjoy…

Introduction

The five points on the star of the light-blue Somali flag proclaim a nation’s dream deferred. The predominantly nomadic Somalis met the era of nationalism and independence with high hopes. They and observers of the time saw a “well-defined geographic and ethnic unit…as a natural base for a sovereign state.” Ethiopia and the colonial powers, however, had different visions for the boundaries of a Somali state. Three points of the star – Djibouti, the Ogaden (in Ethiopia), and the Northern Frontier District in Kenya – were stripped from the Somalis before the official birth of the Somali nation. The subsequent experiments with democracy and ‘scientific socialism’ attempted to develop a modern state and in some ways rebuild a forcibly contracted national consciousness. These processes ultimately failed and led to the collapse of the state in 1991. What emerged in replace of the state were still uncongealed fragments of a dismembered nation. For external and internal reasons, Somali leaders until this day have not found a means to unite these disparate and usually warring pieces.

Final Analysis

Emerging from a dismembering birth at independence, Somali elites have constantly attempted to breed irredentist nationalism to legitimize their control of the state. The early politics of democracy challenged each government to push a hard line on securing the stripped Somali lands of French Somaliland, the Ethiopian Ogaden, and the Northern Frontier in Kenya; former dictator Siad Barre could not concede the right of self-determination for the Ogaden Somalis in the late 1970s; and most recently the Islamic Court Union (ICU) could not muzzle threats against Ethiopia long enough to consolidate and defend their military and political successes in 2006.

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Dec
10

Disengagement from Somalia?

Sean Brooks Somalia 3 comments
Heavily armed men in Somalia

Heavily armed men in Somalia

The United States Institute of Peace held a talk yesterday focusing on “International Engagement with Somalia.” Bronwyn E. Bruton of the Council on Foreign Relations and Abukar Arman, an independent policy analyst originally from Somalia, addressed the immensely complicated topic of how the United States and its international partners should approach the interlocking and enduring political, security, and humanitarian crises in Somalia.

In his remarks, Arman emphasized the need for a “paradigm shift” in policymaking by highlighting the colossal mistakes of recent American policies toward Somalia. While he gave general recommendations for a new blueprint, he failed to outline in a systematic way any real contours for this new approach.

On the other hand, Bruton repeated her call for a policy of “constructive disengagement” from Somalia that she controversially put forward in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs (non-subscription, bootleg, link). In this essay, she states that the American policy of attempting to prop up the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) against the al-Shabaab militia and other threats is a useless and counterproductive effort:

With no side capable of keeping the peace if it wins the war, the U.S. government, as well as the rest of the international community, should not focus its efforts on backing any one group. It should also forget about grand political projects to create a central government authority, which are likely to be futile.

Instead, she writes:

At some later point, when the anti-U.S. sentiment has subsided, it will indeed be desirable for Washington to try to address the deeper causes of anarchy in Somalia. But it will have to be extremely mindful not to revive past prescriptions, including the idea of finding and supporting national political figures in Somalia…

Given the shortage of viable national leaders, bottom-up governance strategies might appear to be a solution to Somalia’s messy, perpetually shifting decentralized politics. For instance, the experience of the ICU, which brought unparalleled stability to an unruly Mogadishu almost overnight in 2006, is instructive…Such arrangements,although admittedly fragile, have emerged in the northern regions of Somaliland and Puntland. The best of them depend on local, rather than international, resources to deliver economic growth and other concrete benefits to the public and respect relations among clan and religious leaders, business groups, and civil society
This proposal if undertaken would represent a true paradigm shift on how the U.S. approaches the conflicts in Somalia. Rather than treating Somalia as a battleground of moderates and extremists in the Global War on Terror, Bruton would prioritize humanitarian relief, local reconciliation initiatives, and sustainable economic development. These efforts would in time, Bruton states, help marginalize most combatants:

Somali actors are generally responsive to economic incentives. Most combatants are freelancers who have been forced to join militias out of economic need; in fact, they are often stigmatized as bandits for making such a move. In order to give them options other than employment with militias, the United States should promote targeted local development initiatives, such as a decentralized microcredit scheme that would engage both the Somali diaspora worldwide and existing local authorities. So long as these projects steer clear of governance reform, they might encourage the public to pressure local Islamists into distancing themselves from radical anti-Western actors.

This concept of how warlords make decisions in Somalia is not new. Ken Menkhaus (my former advisor at Davidson College) has written extensively on the subject. For years, he has argued that, “State-building and peace-building are…two separate and in some respects mutually antagonistic enterprises. This is because the revival of a state structure is viewed in Somali quarters as a zero-sum game.”

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Dec
09

Aftermath of the Crackdown in Sudan

Sean Brooks Sudan Add your comment

Also posted at Save Darfur…

Yesterday, at the end of the first full day after the crackdown in Khartoum, the State Department finally released its statement condemning the violence used against protesters in Sudan. Calling for restraint and dialogue among all parties, the U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan, Scott Gration, stated:

“I am deeply concerned about these developments and urge all parties to exercise restraint. Negotiations on issues of urgent importance to all of the Sudanese people cannot proceed in an atmosphere of intimidation.”

SPLM leader Yassir Arman arguing with police

SPLM leader Yassir Arman arguing with police

Today, at the end of the second day, we have the following to report.  First, the Juba alliance announced that it would not hold another demonstration tomorrow, but would postpone the effort until next Monday, December 14.  Sudanese newspapers this morning also reported that Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir would meet today with Sudan’s First Vice President and leader of the Sudan’s People Liberation Movement (SPLM) Salva Kiir to discuss Monday’s events and to seek solutions on overcoming the roadblocks in the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).

As for the political climate in Khartoum and much of the rest of the country, it remains tense.  Al-Sahafa reports that the Sudan Scholars Authority (Muslim scholars) issued a fatwa (a religious decision) prohibiting Muslims from joining demonstrations organized by the “enemies of Islam” and that the government is entitled to prevent sedition and chaos in the country. The opposition mocked this fatwa and considered it as clearly a propaganda item of the National Congress Party (in Arabic). Afrik.com also has a story claiming that five Ugandan businessmen were killed during the violent clashes between the police and protesters in the Southern Sudanese town of Rumbek. And despite a number of claims by observers and participants, police in Khartoum again denied that they used teargas on Monday against the protestors. Meanwhile, the Sudanese Journalist Network called for an investigation of detentions of and alleged abuses against five reports – including the confiscation of their tape recorders – during the demonstration.

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Dec
08

Addressing Repression and Supporting Civil Society in Sudan

Sean Brooks Sudan Add your comment

First posted at Save Darfur…Six hours later, the State Department finally released a statement condemning the violence against protesters yesterday in Sudan.

A full 36 hours after the beginning of the crackdown in Khartoum, we still have not heard the Obama administration address the troubling situation in Sudan. This morning the BBC reports that Sudan People’s Liberation Movement’s (SPLM) Secretary General Pagan Amum (one of those arrested yesterday) has stated that peace in Sudan is in serious crisis.

Headlines this morning in the Sudanese papers demonstrate the urgency. The “Juba group” of political parties has demanded the resignation of the Ministers of Justice and the Interior, as well as the police chief of Khartoum, for their actions yesterday (in Arabic). Meanwhile, Omar al-Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP) alleges that the opposition yesterday attempted to undermine the elections, overthrow the government, and take control of the government (in Arabic). NCP members particularly called out Hassan al-Turabi, the intellectual who helped Bashir come to power in 1989, for being behind the plot.

The Sudan Tribune also carries a number of stories on yesterday’s events. Reading about the subsequent protests in the South, which turned ugly quickly, one realizes that it’s not hyperbole when Sudanese and others speak of being on the edge of the abyss. Things could get much worse if the right flame is lit.

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Dec
07

Bad Day in Sudan, Portends Worse

Sean Brooks Sudan Add your comment
Protests in Sudan Today

Protests in Sudan Today

First posted at Save Darfur…

Omar al-Bashir and his National Congress Party (NCP) failed another test today of their commitment to holding free and fair elections in Sudan scheduled for April 2010.  Responding to a march (see video here of crowds chanting “Freedom, Peace and Security”) planned by the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and northern opposition parties, the Sudanese security forces violently quashed the demonstration and arrested a number of Sudanese politicians and activists.  We have been compiling information throughout the day.

The following is a run down and here is also a collection of pictures.

Amnesty International confirms that over 200 people, including opposition leaders and human rights activists, were arrested at the demonstration. It demanded that Sudanese authorities announce the names and whereabouts of those arrested and either charge them with recognized criminal offenses or release them immediately:

“This is yet another example of the culture of violence that the Sudanese government has adopted,” said Tawanda Hondora, deputy director of the Africa program at Amnesty International. “The government must respect the right of protesters to peacefully assemble and express their views. This is a crucial time for Sudan and all parties should abstain from using violence, especially in the light of the coming elections and referendum.”

Two of the leading members of the SPLM, Pagan Amum and Yasir Arman, were among those arrested. Our sources tell us that Arman was beaten severely by a group of police officers before being taken to the hospital.  Both men are now free. The children and grandchildren of Sudanese opposition leaders Sadiq al-Mahdi (Umma Party) and Hassan al-Turabi (Popular Congress Party) were also detained during the day. Here is an interview of Amum from prison:

All of us have been arrested in violation of our constitutional right of peaceful demonstration and marches. Our intention was to present a petition to the members of parliament to enact within these two weeks the Referendum Law on the right of self determination for the people of southern Sudan…Sudan is on the edge of an abyss and we must do everything to preventing it from falling into this abyss of disintegration and chaos…[We are protesting] so that these laws are enacted in conformity with the constitution so that there are freedoms which will ensure that the upcoming elections will be free and fair.

Al-Jazeera reported early this morning that the Sudanese security blocked them from covering the protests and confiscated their tapes.  Fortunately, they captured this footage before being shut down. Our colleague has quickly translated and transcribed two interviews in the footage.  The woman in a white toab(Sudanese national dress), a member of the Umma party, about a third of the way through the video says:

The arrest of the SPLM leaders and members of the Sudanese parliament has proved that there is no freedom in Sudan. This demonstration is peaceful, the people are peaceful. If the government is facing it with this number of military and police forces and with harassment and violence, that means this country doesn’t have freedom, no respect for law and order, no freedom of expression.  This consequently demonstrates the reality that the government is using the force to maintain its seat (in power) and is not allowing any democratic transformation in this country to take place.

After this interview, the man in suit, a member of PCP, asserts:

It’s impossible for the election to take place in an environment dominated by oppression and dictatorship. It’s crucial to change the laws one of which was referenced by the police today to justify their reaction to the protest…because the government’s justification for their reaction is Article 127 of the Sudanese criminal laws that allows the authorities to stop any kind of demonstration or protest even if its peaceful, as well as prohibiting any gathering for delivering statements of protests to the government…The demonstration is calling for the reform and amendment of many laws that were supposed to be amended based on the Sudanese Interim National Constitution.

Protestors Detained Today
Protestors Detained Today

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