Elizabeth Allen, a fellow SAIS alum of mine, reflects on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and past posts at Brains Like a Shoe on the subject.

Last Sunday, I caught a discussion on TV between CNN’s Christiane Amanpour and a scholar at the Wilson Center, Aaron David Miller, who served as an advisor to the State Department on Mid-East affairs between 1978 and 2003.  The first thing out of Miller’s mouth – that “no one ever lost money betting against Arab-Israeli peace” – was a good quip.  It’s difficult to dial down the tensions when talking about one of the most frustrating topics in international politics today.

Most people would agree that a peaceful resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a worthy, and all-too-pressing, goal.  But it seems to me that a dispute will almost certainly emerge if one ventures to be more specific.  The political quagmire that currently exists in the territories of the Holy Land (heightened again by the events of this past week) is unlike any other conflict in the world today, at least in its ability to attract the attention (and inspire the anger and moral certitude) of millions of onlookers.  And yet, despite the benefit of heavy international commentary, there exists no common interpretation of the problem at hand, and no common agreement about the kind of responsibility that should be borne by each of the myriad players involved (be they local, national, regional, international, multilateral, paramilitary, or non-governmental).  When one adds to this a consideration of the historical suffering of both Jews and Palestinians, coupled with the profound fear within each group of collective demise, the political quagmire is only further heightened:  It is an existential crisis of the first order.

The subject of Israel and Palestine has been on my mind quite a lot recently.  The release of the explosive Goldstone report in late-September was followed a month later by a flurry of excitement (and some controversy) surrounding the new lobbying group J Street and the advent of its first conference here in D.C. While these occurrences were enthusiastically mentioned here at Brains for a Shoe, I admit that I found myself less-than-excited about the kind of long-term political breakthroughs that they portend (if any).

It seems clear that amid the ongoing rage surrounding this conflict, there seems to be a growing impulse in certain quarters to want to speak in calmer ways to one another – to put down some of the rhetorical molitovs.  In the age of Obama, this drive to “disagree without being disagreeable” has gained a new kind of currency that holds out promise for greater understanding and a bit of relief.  But of course, it should go without saying that there are limits to the kind of politicking that this new attitude can achieve.  Last month’s Daily Show interview with two peace activists (which got praise on this blog) was enjoyed by so many viewers precisely because it said so little, because it approached political problems through humanitarian appeals and platitudes.  Likewise, the arrival of J Street onto the DC lobbying scene seems to have been heralded more for what it symbolizes, than for the (often murky) substance of what the group actually purports to stand for.  “Pro-Israel, pro-peace” may be a great slogan, but what it means in terms of actual policy – especially to the many new fans of the group – has not been all that clear.  (A great illustration of this confusion can be seen here, although recently the group’s leadership seems to be working to better clarify its positions.)  All this is to say that, especially for those of us who live outside the territory in conflict, perhaps it behooves us to temper the impulse to cling to cathartic sloganeering.  Emotional appeals will bring more people into the fold of the cause (whichever “side” you find yourself on), but it’s a poor substitute for the kind of day-to-day attentiveness to the political slogging that manages conflict and creates bureaucratic compromises.

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This week Georgetown University’s Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding released a list of the top 500 most influential Muslims. Some blogs have criticized the overall exercise, as well as pointed to the conspicuous absence of individuals like Mohamed Yunis and Fareed Zakaria.  In looking at the six Sudanese included in the list, they collectively encompass much of the past and present in Sudan.  But who might be missing and who best represents the future of Sudan?

To start, the report describes Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir in the following unflattering way:

al bashir, his excellency president omar: Al Bashir is the current president of Sudan and head of the National Congress Party. He came to power in a coup in 1989 and has since instituted elements of sharia law throughout the country, including in Christian and animist areas. The ICC issued an arrest warrant for al Bashir in 2009, indicting him on five* counts of crimes against humanity (murder, extermination, forcible transfer, torture and rape) and two counts of war crimes (pillaging and intentionally directing attacks against civilians). *Note: Bashir has been indicted on seven charges.

It also, unsurprisingly, includes the two other Sudanese leaders that have dominated politics and the religious discourse in Sudan for the last four decades:

al turabi, hassan abdallah: Al Turabi is a Sudanese religious leader. He is widely regarded as a moderate and uses Islamic teachings to foster social development. He is an advocate for women’s rights, and believes Muslim fundamentalists place prohibitions above social development. He has recently stated that Sudanese president Omar Al Bashir should give himself up to the International Criminal Court for the sake of Sudan.

al Mahdi, H.E. Imam Sayyed Al Sadiq: Uniquely situated on this list as the single most influential Sudanese leader who derives influence from his lineage—his great grandfather, Muhammad Ahmad, claimed to be the Mahdi, or messianic figure in Islamic eschatology—Imam Sayyed al Sadiq al Mahdi is also Imam of the al Ansar sufi order and president of the moderate Islamic Umma Party.

These short descriptions fail to convey the complex intermingling of politics and religion in Sudan.  In reading them, one would never know that al-Turabi provided al-Bashir with the hard-line Islamist ideology and man-power to overthrow al-Mahdi’s democratically-elected government in 1989.  Labeling al-Turabi as a “moderate” may make sense today as he has recently taken stances that have upset Salafists in Sudan and beyond.  In doing so though, the description ignores al-Turabi’s track record of imposing strict sharia law in Sudan in the 1980s and 1990s and also providing refugee and support to the international jihadist movement – including, of course, inviting Osama bin Laden to use Sudan as a staging ground in the mid-1990s.

As for Darfur, the report highlights the tragedy by including:

osman, salih mahmoud: Salih Mahmoud Osman is a Sudanese lawyer, human rights advocate and a member of the Sudan National Assembly. Listed in European Voice’s 50 most influential people in 2007, Osman also received the 2005 Human Rights Watch Award and the American Bar Association’s 2006 International Human Rights Award.

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First posted at Save Darfur…

The Darfuri civil society consultations in Doha concluded Saturday with representatives finalizing the “Doha Declaration” and delivering it to African Union/United Nations chief mediator Djibril Bassolé and their Qatari host, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs H.E. Ahmed Bin Abdullah Al Mahmoud.  The declaration reportedly urged the Sudanese government and the Darfuri rebels to commit to a ceasefire and begin negotiations as soon as possible.  It also called upon all sides and the mediators to include civil society as part of the negotiations and to task it with assisting in the implementation of any agreement.

The ruling National Congress Party (NCP) is not at all enthusiastic about a coherent civil society voice.  But unlike in May with Mandate Darfur, a civil society initiative sponsored by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, we have not heard of any reported incidents of Darfuri representatives being prevented by the Sudanese government from attending.  This outcome is likely due to the combined and coordinated pressure of Bassolé, the Qataris, U.S. Special Envoy Scott Gration and other envoys.  As for the overall representation of the 170 delegates, we are hearing good things as well. Rebel representatives in Doha, who themselves are leery of a strong civil society voice, had to concede that the NCP had not stacked the conference.  While there are no hard numbers, many of the representatives and others at the consultations stated that overall they were satisfied with the attendance.  Of course, there were some pro-NCP attendees, but these were nowhere near the majority.

And it seems apparent from the “Doha Declaration” itself that NCP representatives had limited influence on the outcome.  In addition to a call for a ceasefire and negotiations, the civil society representatives also made strong demands about carrying out justice, ending impunity, and resolving land issues in Darfur.  In fact, the document specifically calls for the return of all land of displaced persons and refugees to their original owners and the evacuation of those who have lived on the land during their absence.  It also calls for the disarmament of all armed forces in Darfur, except for the constitutionally authorized regular forces, and the establishment of the necessary security mechanisms by UNAMID to allow displaced persons and refugees to return to their villages. As we have just received the text in Arabic, we will try to provide a summary translation later in the week.

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What an interesting week.  I was not able to blog on much of it, but here is what I was reading:

It’s not just Sudan…more on China in Africa: The New York Times highlights political implications of a Chinese scholarship program for Namibia’s elite; China and Senegal hope to enhance military cooperation; and at the Globalist, two authors convincingly argue that “China is currently pursuing oil resources in unstable countries without regard for the political risk entailed. While that might play well in the short- to medium-term, it could cost China dearly down the line.”

It’s not just China increasing influence in Africa: Saudi Arabia held the first meeting of the Saudi-East Africa Forum in Addis Ababa this week. Representatives from seven East African countries attended: Ethiopia, Djibouti, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Uganda and Rwanda.  A Saudi minister stated, “Saudi Arabia is committed to combating hunger, to provide support for the host country but also to generate exports. We are not to impose our needs above the needs of local population.” Sudan did not participate in the forum; however, the Saudi Development Fund announced this week that it was donating 15 million dollars for development and rehabilitation in Darfur.  The money will go to the “model villages” that the Arab League has pushed as an effort to help IDPs in Darfur return to normal lives.

Whither Yemen? Thats the title of a good blog summarizing the current challenges facing Yemen’s leadership.  It concludes that “the period ahead for Yemen is likely to be, to paraphrase Hobbes, ‘nasty and brutish.’” Another blog challenges the notion that Saudi Arabia’s recent intervention in Yemen’s conflict with the Houthi rebels could be good for the US because it will lead to the further militarization of the Gulf and a strong Sunni and Gulf alliance against Iranian encroachment throughout the Arab world. Ian Bremmer at Foreign Policy tends to agree that greater militarization and more proxy wars are usually not constructive anywhere and argues that a failed state next to the world’s largest oil exporter is reason enough for Americans to care about the conflict.

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This week, I focused on China’s deepening economic relations with Sudan and the politics of football/soccer in Egypt. To round out these stories, I wanted to share a few more items from today’s papers.

First, The Sudan Tribune has a bit more from Zhou Yongkang, the Chinese security chief, who led the delegation to Sudan this week and about whom I blogged yesterday. After his meeting with Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, he showered the man wanted on seven charges at the International Criminal Court with the following praise:

“As an old friend of the Sudanese president, I got a full sense of the profound changes that have taken place in Sudan under your leadership as soon as I stepped on Sudanese soil…This morning I visited the Khartoum Oil Refinery. Ten years ago it was a mere construction site. Today it is covered with one modern plant after another.”

Second, two leading Sudanese papers (Al-Rai Al-Aam and Al-Sahafa) this morning lead with stories about the aftermath of the Egypt-Algeria match on Wednesday.  Stating that President Hosni Mubarak thanked Bashir for the efforts of the Sudanese security, the articles try to put to rest rumors of new tensions between the Egyptians and Sudanese.  The articles also claim that at least 10 Algerian fans are being held in Khartoum and will face charges in Sudanese courts for their assaults on Egyptian fans after the game.

Many Sudanese are upset with the way in which the Egyptian media attacked the Sudanese for their inability to maintain order.  They feel like its yet another demonstration of the colonial mindset of the Egyptians – too many of whom, they claims, still revel in the nostalgia of the Anglo-Egyptian Condominium from 1899-1955. For an Egyptian perspective of what happened in Khartoum though, check out this article in Al-Ahram Weekly, as well as Dina Ezzat in the same issue who “laments the senseless Egyptian-Algerian furore.”

- Sudan Ambassador to Egypt met with Abou Gheit who carried message from Mubarak
- Algerians will be tried under Sudanese law
- no deaths, but injuries resulted
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Zhou Yongkang of the Communist Party of China andSudanese Vice President Ali Osman Tah meet in Khartoum

Zhou Yongkang of the Communist Party of China andSudanese Vice President Ali Osman Tah meet in Khartoum

First posted at Save Darfur…

To close the week, more information on the China/Sudan deal reported first in the Sudanese press and covered here on Wednesday and breaking in the English-language press today.

John Garnaut at The Sydney Morning Herald details the power of security chief Zhou Yongkang who led the Chinese delegation to Sudan.  Garnaut describes the contingent from Beijing as “almost as impressive as Obama’s” and writes:

Zhou could not have made his visit to Sudan without the party leadership considering how it might affect the Obama-Hu Jintao spectacle in Beijing. Ostensibly, however, he and Bashir were simply getting down to business. They unveiled the first Khartoum-Beijing direct flights, opened a Confucius Institute, signed an agriculture agreement and agreed to jointly pump yet more oil.

The article also gives more of the back-story on China’s investments in Sudan:

Back in 1995 Zhou Yongkang was working his way to the top of China’s biggest oil company, Petrochina. He had close connections with another oil industry veteran, Zeng Qinghong, who happened to be a powerbroker for the then president, Jiang Zemin. Zhou and Zeng were the drivers and Jiang was the decision maker behind China’s hugely controversial decision to exploit Sudan’s oil reserves at a time when Western companies could not afford the political or reputation risk, according to several Chinese oil industry and foreign policy sources…This week, Zhou gave a modest account of that personal history.

”Fourteen years ago, then Chinese president Jiang Zemin and you made the strategic decision to start China-Sudan oil co-operation, and our bilateral pragmatic co-operation has since entered a stage of fast development,” Zhou recounted to Bashir, on the delayed CCTV report. Bashir was quick to give Zhou some personal glory.

“You are the important promoter of the Sudan-China oil project, the Sudanese people have special affection towards you,” said Bashir. “Sudan-China oil co-operation not only brought Sudan oil but also peace.”

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Zhou Yongkang of the Communist Party of China and Sudanese Vice President Ali Osman Taha

Zhou Yongkang of the Communist Party of China and Sudanese Vice President Ali Osman Taha

First posted at Save Darfur…

While President Barack Obama was meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao yesterday in Beijing, top Sudanese government officials were inking a new deal with a visiting Chinese delegation in Khartoum.  Not yet covered by the English-language press, Al-Rai Al-Aam(an Arabic-language Sudanese newspaper that leans heavily to Omar al-Bashir’s National Congress Party) ran a leading story this morning with the headline: “The government welcomes China’s plan for joint cooperation.”

The series of agreements brokered between the two governments comes two days after the announcement of the first non-stop flight between Beijing and Khartoum. The multi-layered package of support will focus cooperation in four fields: energy, infrastructure, agriculture and food, and training and capacity building.  There was also a commitment to develop stronger national ties by opening cultural centers and connecting universities.

Of probably greatest importance, China pledged to work with Sudan to double its oil production and continue to finance large-scale development projects.  To those ends, the two parties signed two loans worth a collective $46 million and a grant of $11 million.

Xinhua reports that senior Communist Party of China (CPC) officials hailed their country’s relations with Sudan in their public comments.  Zhou Yongkang of the CPC said that he was “pleased to see that Sudan has become one of the fast growing economies in Africa and has improved its people’s standards of living while advancing national reconciliation.”

He also stated that:

Sudan has become China’s third largest trade partner in Africa…China is Sudan’s largest trade partner…Zhou said 2009, which also marks the 10th anniversary of an oil cooperation project between the two countries, is an important year in the history of the Chinese-Sudanese friendship.

In order to enhance the bilateral relationship, China and Sudan should promote political mutual trust, deepen their economic and trade cooperation and expand their exchanges.

With this visit, the Chinese delegation has unabashedly affirmed China’s long-term support of the Sudanese government. The fact that this deal was struck while Obama was in China makes the presidential silence on Sudan – that Jerry addressed this morning – so much more glaring.

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The Project on Middle East Democracy has more coverage about the politics of Egyptian soccer in which they also nicely summarized my post from yesterday.  They write:

Soccer is more than just a sport for Egyptians. A recent victory in a do-or-die match against Algeria has captivated the entire nation, as well as Western observers. The LA Times blog Babylon and Beyond describes how Egypt “wishes for soccer glory as compensation to tough living.” The blog quotes sociologist Sayed Eweis, who explains soccer “is something that makes [Egyptians] happy.” Writing in The GuardianMohamed El Dahshan elaborates that soccer “acts as a catharsis for political frustration and a proxy for popular participation” in Egypt.

I also forgot to mention yesterday that Egypt’s win on Saturday forced a “sudden death” World Cup qualifying match that will be held tomorrow in, of all places, Khartoum.  A blogger at The New York Times highlights the irony:

In Sudan, there is a love-hate relationship with Egypt, and there will be a huge number of Algerian supporters on hand Wednesday for the World Cup playoff game between the Pharaohs and the Desert Foxes. You have to wonder why Egypt chose this country to host the game, with a place in South Africa on the line.

The Sudanese papers this morning covered the extensive security arrangements being made and reported on the scores of planes being chartered from both Algiers and Cairo. The Telegraph reports:

“We expect 48 aircraft from Algeria and 18 from Egypt,” said Khartoum state governor Abdelrahman al-Khidr, noting about 2,000 Egyptians were also expected to take buses, while thousands already lived and worked in Khartoum.

It’s also not just Egyptians who have acted out violently due to the passions of the game.  The Financial Times carries a story of Algerians attacking Egyptian businessmen and enterprises in Algeria. It notes that Egypt is the largest investor in Algeria outside the oil and gas sector.

For tomorrow though, lets put politics aside for 90 minutes, hope for a great game (meaning an Egyptian victory), and of course a day free of violence.  Yalla Masr!

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First posted at Save Darfur…

This week, the African Union/United Nations Chief Mediator Djibril Bassolé will begin consultations with 150 Darfuri civil society representatives in Doha, Qatar.  Rather than focusing on this important gathering though, the media over the weekend strangely focused on the postponement of negotiations between the Sudanese government and the Darfuri rebels.

Those following the process closely knew for weeks that Bassolé and the Qataris were intending to use the remaining weeks of November to consult with Darfuri civil society and the rebel movements – and were not planning to launch direct talks between the rebels and Sudanese government until December.  So this was not really news.  A government-leaning Sudanese newspaper, Al Rai Al Aam, on November 9 even ran a story entitled, “Resumption of the Doha negotiations in December.”

What the media has fundamentally missed is that the gathering of Darfuri civil society is critical to a successful peace process.  The voices and concerns of these local leaders who have not taken up arms merit attention from the press and support from the international community. The most important question that journalists should be asking is whether the Sudanese government this time will allow all Darfuri leaders to leave Sudan and travel to the meetings. Despite all of its recent rhetoric about being ready for peace talks, in May of this year, the government obstructed “the safe passage of Darfurian delegates from Sudan” to the Mandate Darfur conference organized by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.  At the time the organizers wrote:

“Despite numerous attempts at engagement with the Sudanese government, including sending a delegation to Khartoum and inviting senior figures to address the conference, we were greatly disappointed that Sudanese security services harassed our delegates, confiscated passports and threatened the conference coordinators in Sudan.  Ultimately, the government has refused to grant exit visas to the delegates making it impossible for the conference to proceed.”

A second important question to ask is whether the 150 delegates will be representative of the diverse nature of Darfuri society.  That is, will there be the necessary ethnic, geographic, and gender balance and will IDPs and traditional leaders be represented?  Many Darfuris remember the hand-picked civil society “representatives” that the government sent to the Abuja peace talks in Nigeria in 2006.  The Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) has already complainedabout the current list of invitees and delivered to the mediators their own list (article in Arabic).

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Egypt defeated Algeria this weekend in a World Cup qualifying match that was preceded and followed by violence. Days before the game, three Algerian players were slightly injured in Cairo when Egyptian youth attacked their bus. Then, following the stunning last-minute victory by Egypt (watch the video above), near riots broke out in the streets resulting in 32 injuries.

Having lived in Cairo and watched intense national rivalry games on small television sets at dusty coffee shops in dark alleys surrounded by over-caffeinated and over-zealous young men, I can picture perfectly the scene Hannah Allam describes:

Fireworks are exploding, police sirens are blaring, horns are honking, music is thumping and at least six processions of young men with drums have passed noisily in front of my building. Sporadic gunfire is keeping the whole block’s residents in from their balconies.

Tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of Egyptians are flooding the streets draped in the red, white and black of the national flag and generally whooping it up. They have reason to celebrate: the Egyptian national soccer team beat archrival Algeria tonight in a World Cup qualifier. The two teams will play again Wednesday in Sudan.

“This is what a revolution could look like,” an Egyptian friend observed, wistfully, of the fervor in the streets.

With a completely calcified political scene, football serves as one of the only outlets for national pride and competitive domestic politics in Egypt. Elections for the position of president of the two main Cairo clubs - Al-Ahly and Zamalek – are more hotly contested than any government position in the country.

Imagine what the pent up frustration of millions of young Egyptians could do if focused on a political target? Perhaps Gamal Mubarak?  Could this happen if Hosni suddenly passes away or, if before that, he unconstitutionally attempts to hand over power to his son?  Given the police state that is modern-day Egypt, this revolution en masse may never take place. But no one knows for sure until the fortitude of the carefully calibrated system of repression is truly tested.

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